644
FXUS65 KABQ 292133
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over the
northern mountains and eastern plains this afternoon and evening. A
few storms across the east could become severe late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Afternoon storm activity is expected to
continue across eastern NM Thursday and Friday and potentially
extend west into central NM on Saturday. Drier air infiltrates from
the west Sunday, helping temperatures climb to around 5-10 degrees
above seasonal averages. Above average temperatures are dry weather
will likely prevail early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated to scattered convection has developed over the high terrain
this afternoon. Since the moisture boundary pushed further west than
expected overnight, a few updrafts with a little lightning have
developed over the western high terrain as well. This showers and
storms could produce localized gusty winds as they drift eastward
towards the Rio Grande Valley. Storms that move off the Sangre de
Cristo mountains into the eastern plains will attempt to organize,
but only 20-30kts of bulk shear suggest that any severe storms will
be pulsy in nature. There is ample instability across the east-
central and northeast plains for storms to tap into, but model
soundings also show a large cap that they will need to overcome.
Previous runs of the HRRR indicated the potential for storms to
continue past midnight, but recent guidance has backed off that
solution.

Thursday afternoon`s storm activity will focus across far eastern NM
along the dryline. A westerly wave should provide enough lift for
robust, potentially severe convection across the far northeast.
Storms will likely cluster together as they move eastward into TX
during the evening, sending an outflow boundary south and west,
likely squeaking through the gaps of the central mountain chain by
early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Dryline storms are likely once again Friday in eastern NM with the
best chance for severe weather across the far northeast near the CO
border. There will likely be more storm activity than today or
Thursday so the chances of gusty east winds in eastern Albuquerque
and potentially Santa Fe as well will be increased for Saturday
morning. With low-level moisture in place in the wake of the gusty
east winds and a shortwave moving overhead, convective activity
could extend as far west as the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday. Dry
air advection behind this shortwave will limit storms to the far
eastern plains on Sunday and help temperatures soar to the highest
values of the season thus far in western and central NM. The middle
Rio Grande Valley will be pushing 95F and Santa Fe could approach
90F. Long-term ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging
will continue to build over the western US early to mid-next week,
helping temperatures climb even higher. There is some uncertainty
with the location of the ridge, with some models show the axis over
the west coast and others showing it along the spine of the Rockies.
Both would indicate above average temperatures for most of New
Mexico, but the west coast ridge would increase the chances of
backdoor cold front intrusions into eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

MVFR cigs remain in place across portions of central and eastern
NM, but this cloud deck will continue to quickly erode the next
few hours. Meanwhile, the first updrafts of the afternoon have
begun to develop over the high terrain of northern NM and will
become more numerous through the afternoon. Storms over the
mountains will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds up
to 40KT. Showers and storms will move off the mountains into the
eastern plains late this afternoon, potentially becoming severe.
Storm coverage will be isolated, but damaging wind gusts and large
hail may accompany any of these storms. Given the anticipated low
coverage of convection, a strong east wind affecting KABQ seems
unlikely tonight (<15% chance). Some high-res models suggest
isolated storm activity may continue in the east through as late
as 12Z tomorrow. Low stratus is possible again tonight, with the
greatest likelihood in Curry and Quay counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Gusty showers and storms are expected over the high terrain and in
central and eastern NM through the evening hours. A few storms
across the northeast and east central plains may become severe this
evening as well. The dryline will continue to slosh back and forth
across central and eastern NM the next several days, being the focus
of shower and storm activity each day. The threat of strong to
severe storms will generally be confined to far eastern NM each day.
Winds are expected to come up on Sunday in the wake of a westerly
shortwave that will also usher in a drier airmass. Single digit to
low teen minimum afternoon humidity Sunday through Tuesday will
create widespread elevated fire weather conditions with near
critical conditions across the northeast where winds will be a bit
stronger. Fortunately, beneficial rainfall from yesterday and the
next few days could help to increase fuel moisture across this area.
Temperatures are expected to rise to 5-10 degrees above average
areawide early next week as ridging builds in over the Intermountain
West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  86  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  82  38  82 /   0   5   0   5
Cuba............................  45  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  41  84  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  42  83  43  85 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  53  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  49  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  39  87  41  89 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  91  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  75  39  76 /  10   5   0  10
Los Alamos......................  54  79  54  79 /  10   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  50  82  48  81 /  20   5   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  46  75  44  75 /  20  10  10  30
Red River.......................  40  70  37  69 /  20  20  10  40
Angel Fire......................  36  74  34  72 /  30  10  10  40
Taos............................  43  81  42  80 /  20   5   5  20
Mora............................  45  78  43  76 /  20  10  10  40
Espanola........................  51  88  50  87 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  53  82  52  82 /  20   5   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  51  86  50  86 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  87  58  88 /   5   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  89  56  89 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  90  57  90 /   5   0   0   5
Belen...........................  53  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  55  90  56  90 /  10   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  52  90  51  91 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  56  90  55  90 /   5   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  53  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  56  86  57  86 /  10   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  57  89  56  89 /   5   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  57  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  80  52  81 /   5   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  53  83  52  84 /   5   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  49  84  49  84 /  10   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  86  44  86 /   5   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  48  81  48  79 /  10   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  50  83  49  84 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  50  84  48  84 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  57  88  56  89 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  53  82  52  82 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  50  78  46  73 /  20  40  30  60
Raton...........................  48  83  46  77 /  20  30  20  50
Springer........................  50  83  48  79 /  20  30  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  49  81  47  76 /  30  20  10  40
Clayton.........................  57  84  53  77 /  30  50  30  40
Roy.............................  54  82  51  77 /  40  30  20  50
Conchas.........................  59  91  56  84 /  40  20  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  57  88  54  83 /  30   5  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  60  91  56  82 /  30  20  30  30
Clovis..........................  62  94  58  82 /  20  10  20  20
Portales........................  62  95  58  86 /  20   5  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  60  93  57  87 /  10   5  10  20
Roswell.........................  64 100  63  91 /   5   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  55  91  55  86 /   5   0   0  20
Elk.............................  53  90  53  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16