Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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585 FXUS63 KFGF 291719 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1219 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active weather pattern will continue with several chances of rainfall through the next 7 days with Thursday and Sunday into Monday being the most likely to see widespread 0.25" or more amounts. && UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Clear skies prevail across the forecast area this morning with fog now having cleared in most areas. Temperatures are in the middle 50s to low 60s with winds slowly increasing out of the south to southeast. UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Low lying fog this morning reported at GFK and is evident in the up and down nature of restricted obs across the area. No OBS are less than a half mile thus impacts are minimal and with the full sun this morning will see it quickly burn off. Forecast remains on track for a sunny Wednesday with some afternoon breezes of 20 to 30 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall good agreement with model ensembles leading to above average confidence with the forecast wrt to overall temp and precip pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend. After a dry and sunny day today as upper level ridging traverses the area attention turns to Thursday. Synoptic forcing with upper wave in MT lifting into Manitoba and southwest 500mb flow and associated mid level trough will spread lift east across the FA Thursday. Reinforcing an area of showers and initiating some thunderstorms. HREF place the highest QPF in the southern valley not surprising with the highest, though meager, CAPE values, 100 to 300J/kg of ML CAPE. Probabilities of more than a half inch of rainfall have decreased across the north, now less than 25% to 50 to 60% in the southern valley, with probs of an inch or more now at or less than 10% for the entire area. The area will remain in fairly flat or zonal flow with multiple chance for rainfall through the weekend and into next week. We will continue to remain on the low end of any instability until Sunday night when we should see some deeper moisture build into the area. This is the next chance for more wide spread areal rainfall after the spotty and lighter amounts associated with the chances Friday night and Saturday night into Sunday morning. Needless to say the active pattern does look to persist into the beginning of June with temps climbing closer to normal with more 70 degree days occurring. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail for most areas, with only occasional MVFR ceilings at KBJI. Look for VFR ceilings through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight period. Southerly winds increase this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots as an upper low approaches the region. During the overnight hours, LLWS becomes possible as the boundary layer becomes inverted. Wind gusts at the surface will diminish; however, winds aloft remain elevated and slowly increase to around 40 knots out of the south in association with a weakening low level jet. For Thursday morning, precipitation chances increase gradually from west to east, with KDVL seeing rain chances as early as 14Z. Wind gusts should pick back up at the surface, with 25 to 30 knots possible through at least the early afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...Lynch