Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

No updates needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Forecast challenges continue to be rain chances along with
temperatures. Drier airmass will continue to spread south across
the forecast area as surface high pressure builds into the fa.
Precipitable h2o values around 3/4 of an inch should be common by
morning and surface dewpoints should bottom out in the low to mid
50s. With SKC and light winds temperatures should be able to drop
off into the 50s.

Return flow, warm advection and low level moisture flux all
increase during the day Wednesday. Main question will be pcpn/storm
potential. Models differ on where boundary will set during the
day as a short wave propagates through relatively zonal flow. At
this time the best potential looks to be from the southern half
of the forecast area southward into South Dakota. With uncertainty
kept pops relatively low. With warm advection and initial solar,
temperatures should recover to at or above average.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A wave will depart the area Wednesday night with some lingering
showers in its wake. Behind the system, surface high pressure will
dominate at least through Thursday night when another weak
disturbance is expected to trigger a few showers and maybe a storm.
A more vigorous wave will impact the area later Friday evening
through Saturday, bringing better chances for stronger storms and
the situation will be monitored. As the system departs on Saturday
night, expect temperatures to be more seasonal by Sunday...with
highs in the 70s...and a gradual warming trend with drier weather
beyond through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Still a lot of uncertainty in regard to convective development
Wednesday. Lots of differences between the models in the area and
timing. Seems like models still show KFAR to have the highest
potential, with lesser for the other TAF sites. That said, some of
the high resolution models do show weaker convection further
north, which would affect the other TAF sites. Do not have a good
feel for when that would be, so have just added a VCTS mention by
late morning for most of them. Will hopefully get a better idea
with later TAF sets.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...TG



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