Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER W CNTRL MN
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AWAY...HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
PRECIP OVER ERN MT ALMOST INTO WILLISTON...ND AREA. 12Z GFS CAME
IN A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP IN WRN ZONES AND HAVE NOW REMOVED POPS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS CHANGES BEYOND 06Z AT NEXT
SCHEDULED DISCUSSION (21Z).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...TG





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