628
FXUS63 KFGF 251152
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern to continue with chance for showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Western Benson county with late clearing dropped to 32-34 rest
of the area with clouds held 35-38 degrees. They have dropped
all they will and will slowly rise now so will go ahead and drop
the frost advisory.

Cloud cover will remain the issue at least first half of the day
in terms of how it clears gradually northeast. Of note there is
a mid cloud band which is in NW ND moving into central ND and
radar has a few mid level showers with it around Minot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

At 08z 500 mb low was over Lake of the Woods with surface just
nearby in SE Manitoba. This system will continue to drift north
along the Manitoba/Ontario border today with the south edge of
clouds and light rain gradually edging north so that by this
afternoon clouds and light rain chances are confined to parts of
the Lake of the Woods. For the rest of the area, There will be
some mid clouds from across SE ND into parts of WC MN. Some
early morning sprinkles Wheaton and Elbow Lake will be done by
12z. The colder temps will also depart quickly and today will
end up with highs upper 50s north to upper 60s south. West winds
also gradually diminishing and noticeably less wind than on
Friday.

For temps starting out this early morning...clouds and wind
keeping temps steady in the 34 to 39 range over northeast ND and
NW MN. No actual frost occurring but temps in some areas
remaining sub 36 thru 12/13z. Will do away with advisory when
that occurs.

Tonight will see a short wave move quickly east thru SD into
central MN with a band of 700 mb frontogenesis and some
instability (few hundred CAPE) just south of the our fcst area
from Watertown to Alexandria area 00z-03z. Will keep our chance
pops into our part of WC MN up to about Fergus Falls to in
between Park Rapids and Wadena tonight.

Sunday will start off chilly in the north part of the fcst area
where skies mainly clear and winds under 10 mph. Fcst lows in
the 35-39 range. Then increasing clouds from the west later
Sunday with chance for showers and a few t-storms Sun night into
Monday as a broad short wave and sfc low move thru. Precip
amounts look more manageable with probs for more than 0.50 inch
below 20 percent.

Brief break and warm up mid week, esp Thursday, as upper ridge
builds in but just in time for another potential slow moving
upper trough to develop in Minnesota and give chances for
showers and t-storms late Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Improving conditions this morning, but as usual timing of when
MVFR ceilings at DVL, GFK, TVF and BJI move out is uncertain and
subject to amendments. Trends though will be for VFR conditions
this aftn all TAF sites with a west wind 10-20kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night
     for NDZ053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle