Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 162055
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

An area of showers exiting the forecast area to the east
as associated shortwave energy lifts into Southern Ontario. Widely
scattered showers remain possible across much of the area as
radar returns some a few echos over eastern North Dakota. Pwats
over an inch lingering back over the Red River valley with ML CAPE
up to 500J/KG exist in SE ND. Will continue the chance of some
thunder activity in the south and moving east into west central
MN this evening.

Overnight northerly winds increase as pressure gradient increases
with departure of SFC low to the east. Gradient continues to
increase wednesday with strong SFC low over Nebraska and SFC high
pressure in . Potential to mix to near 850mb by Wednesday
afternoon winds winds near advisory criteria in the higher terrain
of the Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne river of eastern ND. Much
cooler highs with 850mb temps in the 2 to 6C range and leading to
highs in the 50s and 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Any lingering precipitation across the far southeastern portion of
the forecast area Wednesday night will depart to the east by
Thursday morning. Temperatures overnight will be a bit cooler than
as of late with far northeastern North Dakota maybe even seeing
readings dip into the low to mid 30s. However, with winds of 15-20
mph, think there should be plenty of mixing to avoid any frost...at
least for now.

Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the area for Thursday
and Friday keeping the end of the work week dry. Although dry with
hopefully some sunshine, temperatures will stay on the cool side
with readings only reaching into the upper 50s or low 60s. Thursday
night will bring better chances for frost as lows dip into the 30s
area-wide. Models still disagree a bit on where the center of the
high settles in which will be a factor in wind speeds across the
area and who will have the highest frost potential. Regardless,
headlines will more than likely need to be considered at least
somewhere.

As high pressure moves off to the east to start the weekend, another
system is forecast to develop somewhere across the central/southern
Plains and move to the north and east. A lot of model disagreement
continues on the track of this system with the GFS pulling it more
northward (impacting our area) while the ECMWF brings it much
further east (less impacts to our area). Something to be watched as
it draws closer. The good news is that while Saturday will remain
fairly cool, a slight warming trend will begin taking shape by the
end of the weekend and heading into next week.

Lastly, the active pattern looks to continue into the new work week
as the area transitions to more of a northwest flow pattern with
several upper waves possibly sweeping through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Low ceilings will impact eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota through the 18Z TAF period. MVFR and low VFR ceilings
will prevail with periods of IFR and LIFR ceilings possible.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...ac



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