Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 292349
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

COORD WITH WFO BIS A BIT EARLIER FOR POP/TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM WASKISH THROUGH FOSSTON TO FARGO TO FORMAN ND
AT 2330Z. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG IT AND MOSTLY CONFINED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM BTWN FOSSTON/CROOKSTON NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD BAUDETTE. STILL KEPT ISOLD SHOWER WORDING AHEAD AND JUST
BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. DID DROP POPS IN THE FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST AGAINST BIS FCST AREA AS FRONT WELL EAST. DRIER
AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN
INTO CENTRAL ND AND BEST CLEARING PROGGED INTO THAT REGION
TONIGHT. THUS DROPPED LOWS A BIT TO INCLUDE MID 40S IN AREAS FROM
CAVALIER TO LANGDON TO DEVILS LAKE. OTHERWISE TEMPS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS PROGGED TO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHERN RRV INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT METARS SHOW THE SFC BNDRY MOVING ACROSS ND TODAY IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLY FROM HCO (MN) TO FAR.
SAT CONTINUING TO SHOW SKIES OVER THE UPPER SHEYENNE BASIN AND
JAMES VALLEY REGION BREAK UP. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER
OF RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER CENTRAL ND. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM MODELS
APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP...SO WILL GO MOSTLY WITH
CONTINUITY/WX TRENDS VS ANY MODEL CHOICE. LATER IN THE PERIOD A
FRONT MOVES INTO WRN ND...WITH GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
TIMING. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR THIS PD.

THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT....SFC BNDRY NOW EAST OF AREA OF CLEARING
AND MOVING INTO MN...WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY AND
REGION HAS NOT HEATED OUT. OVERALL NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SITUATION AND
WILL KEEP IN THE LOW CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
THE MAIN THREAT. COOLEST AREAS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ND
AND INTO FAR NWRN MN WHERE SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR AND TEMPS COULD
DROP INTO UPPER 40S ACROSS THIS REGION.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION...HOWEVER A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW
WILL MOVE INTO MT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. AN
OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PICK UP BY LATE
SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THE
WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE DRG THE DAY SUNDAY
(SEE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION) AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING EXTENDED AREA OF SFC
TROUGHING/FRONT FROM EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH SD/NE AND INTO
NW KS. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN
MT AT 12Z SUNDAY. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER WAVE ENTERING THE
DAKOTAS THAN IS THE ECMWF...AND ITS TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON SVR
POTENTIAL FOR SUN AFTN. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE
WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT COUPLED WITH 35 TO 45 KTS OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL
MN BY MID AFTN. BULK SHEAR BY SUN AFTN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40
KTS TO 50 KTS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT MAINLY
DRY. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS COULD INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIAL SW FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES IS TOUGH...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF MAINLY CHANCE
TYPE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MONITORING WIND SHIFT WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO FARGO AND
WILL BE INTO BEMIDJI SOON. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AT GFK WITH
LIGHTER WINDS NOW AT DVL AND TVF. ALL WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONCE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT FOR A
FEW HOURS WITH LOW END VFR CIGS IN THE 3-5K FT RANGE AHD OF FRONT
AND ON TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD DECK BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN.
TIMING OF CLEARING KEPT ABOUT THE SAME AS PREV FCST...02Z
DVL/06-7Z GFK/10Z TVF/12-15Z FAR-BJI. GIVE OR TAKE A LITTLE BIT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD A BIT LONGER IN WCNTRL MN
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.