Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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144
FXUS63 KFGF 081852
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

From the looks of Canadian radar the far northeastern fcst area to
receive snow in the half inch to 1 inch range as higher returns
headed for the MN arrowhead region. Risk of flurries into the RRV
is decreasing. Winds are increasing and turning northwest with
wind gusts at Rolla at 42 kts. 40 kts is to mix via HRRR this aftn
but wind direction NW vs due N for the RRV so that and lack of
cold advection will limit true mixing potential. Nonetheless
windy. Without falling snow and temps warming into the low - mid
30s this aftn in warm air west of the system any snow on the
ground movement should be very limited.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The short term period presents two main forecast challenges. An
upper wave will drop out of NE Manitoba mid-day today and bring a
quick burst of light snow to areas east of the Red River,
primarily over northwest and west central Minnesota. A cold front
will shift surface winds to the northwest and cold advection
behind the wave will create some higher winds in the 18Z to 03Z
timeframe.

Models continue to be in good agreement with an area of H300-H500
Q-vector convergence forcing sinking into northeast zones from MB
in the 15Z to 18Z timeframe with peak magnitudes clipping far
eastern zones this afternoon. The strongest Q-vector convergence
will be over the Arrowhead. Wave is well down into southeast MN
by 03Z. Time lagged CONS short presents best solution for POPs
this afternoon, with likely POPs entering Baudette region by 17Z
and impacting primarily Lake of the Woods and Beltrami
counties...with scattered snow showers possible as far west as the
Red River. Still looking at an inch or two possible over the far
northeastern zones. The strongest surface winds will be over
northeast ND by 21Z but not impact areas with fresh snow until
the early evening...when snow should be tapering off. Therefore
not looking for significant impacts although portions of northwest
MN could see some drifting snow during the afternoon commute. Any
restrictions to visibility should be widely isolated. Colder
overnight lows in the low teens to around ten in eastern North
Dakota...and approaching zero in the far east...with early
Saturday morning apparent temps approaching 10 below in
Baudette/Fosston/Bemidji areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Northerly flow aloft continues as the pattern undergoes very little
change. Expect an upper wave propagating through the region every
few days, with light snow and stronger winds (blowing snow) the main
impacts. The strongest signal for higher impact weather is Sunday
afternoon/overnight. ECMWF is further west with the track of this
system than other guidance, and there is large spread in ensemble
guidance, so predictability still low. With that said, there are
some hints for banding potential (heavier snow) and stronger winds,
so potential for a higher impact event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

mix of MVFR and VFR conditions thru tonight with prevelent MVFR
cigs Bemidji area and VFR west into the RRV/E ND. Winds will
be turning northwest and increase in speed thru the aftn/eve with
gusts to 30 kts or so so in E ND/RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Riddle



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