Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Seeing a little bit of cumulus formation around the Lake of the
Woods region, otherwise there is abundant sunshine elsewhere.
Already seeing temps in the lower 80s at a lot of locations, so
the forecast of upper 80s to lower 90s is still looking good.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Upper level trough was over the western Great Lakes. Low amplitude
northwest flow aloft will be over the area with short waves moving
through the flow. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over
northern ALTA/SASK with an east-west jet streak on the south side of
upper low. Trough will move across northern MAN this afternoon.
Upper trough will send a cold front into the northern REd River
Valley by Tue afternoon.

Low level moisture to increase this afternoon. Mucapes around
2000j/kg over the southwest zones this afternoon. Prefrontal surface
trough moves through the area Mon night. Low level convergence field
sets up over the southern Red River Valley for Tue/Tue night.
Higher low level moisture to move into the southern zones Tue.

Low level ridging moves out of SASK and into the area Tue night and
should push precip south and east of the area for Wed. However a
weak low pressure system will move across SD Wed and may produce
rain in the far southern Valley Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thursday-Sunday...Weak zonal to northwest flow aloft through the
period. Models do not offer any strong signals for precipitation...
thus only 20%-30% PoPs for mainly the afternoon periods. Severe
potential appear limited given weaker deep layer shear and marginal
instability...although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will be near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Fairly straightforward TAFs for the next 24 hours. Winds will stay
on the lighter side, with the main question being any shower/tstm
development tonight. A weak boundary drops to a Lake of the Woods
to Jamestown line by mid evening, with a weak low level jet
focused into that area. Models indicating isolated tstm
development along the line, but confidence fairly low on even
seeing VCTS at any of the TAF sites. Will therefore just mention
SCT-BKN mid level clouds for now, and see what later model runs
have in store.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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