Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 201808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
108 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017


Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Things have been warming up nicely since the clouds have cleared
out of the majority of the area. Therefore, did increase high
temperatures 2-3 degrees up and down and the valley and further
east. The Devils Lake basin has been under clouds longer this
morning so temperatures remain in line there.

Other than that, no update needed for this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 946 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Not too much for updating needed this morning. Tweaked sky grids
to account for clearing building in a bit faster than anticipated.
Also updated hourly temperatures through the morning with
readings slower to rise (for now) under the thicker cloud cover
across the south. Will continue to watch how clouds vs clearing
affect temperatures throughout the day.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Radar echos still occuring with no ground truth across the
southeastern FA. Will continue to see echos and thicker clouds
slide to the east and south with as the 700mb frontogenetically
forcing exits the area. Winds today will gradually increase into
the afternoon from the west then turn to the northwest this
evening behind the fropa. The short wave sliding just north of the
FA this evening is showing an impressive upper level curl on
water vapor this morning in northern Saskatchewan.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Today concern will be temperatures once again and some light snow
possible along a cold front passage this evening across the
northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. This morning 70mb
frontogenesis providing enough lift to create some elevated
showers across the southern valley. However dry blyr is limiting
echoes from reaching the ground. Will continue to maintain a dry
forecast for the morning hours. Westerly winds will develop this
afternoon and mix down from about 900mb. This will allow temps to
warm adiabatically into the 40s to near 50 across the central
valley. Cold front with winds turning the north northwest will
push across the area this evening in the 00Z- 06Z time frame. Went
ahead and added a snow chance across the Roseau to Baudette to
Waskisk areas as the fropa moves through. Minimal snowfall
accumulations are expected less than an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as SFC high pressure with
925mb temps 5 to 10C below drops southeast across the
northeastern forecast area from Manitoba. As a result a seasonally
cold day with clear skies and north winds Tuesday with
temperatures struggling into the 20s and low 30s. Return flow
develops with south winds allowing for some temp recovery
Wednesday as max temps expected to warm into the 30s. With the
warm air advection light precipitation is expected starting
Wednesday late morning in the west. A gradual march to the east is
expected with some light snow possible north and a snow to rain
changeover in the south during the daylight hours then back to
snow in the Wednesday evening across west central MN in the
higher elevations of the lakes and trees.

Thursday will see moisture spread north ahead of a deep 500 mb low
that will be over the southern Rockies.  Rain with this feature
looks to spread to about Fargo-Bemidji with heaviest rainfall
amounts south of our region.  Northern stream more westerly flow
aloft will keep northern areas dry.  As the upper low moves east
into the southern plains Friday drier air will get pushed a bit
south with main rain chances in eastern SD into southern MN.
Saturday and Sunday look mainly dry and seasonably mild with highs
above freezing and lows a bit below freezing.  So a slow melt
process for the Devils Lake basin.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Current forecasts
keep any ceilings south of the TAF sites. Westerly winds will
become more northerly throughout the period at 10-15 knots.




AVIATION...Lee/Hakala is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.