Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Forecast challenges will be wind chill headlines through the
morning and then more blowing and drifting snow this afternoon.
Sfc high pressure was located over most of the midwest this
morning, with fairly light winds and mainly clear skies the
result. Wind chills will continue in the advisory and warning
ranges through at least noon, so do not plan any changes to these
headlines. The sfc high will shift into Wisconsin through the day,
as the pressure gradient tightens from west to east over the FA.
There is steady warm advection and 925mb winds increase to 25 to
40 knots by 21z. Not a very favorable sounding for mixing the full
brunt of these winds to the sfc, but should at least see some
steadier winds pick up through the afternoon. This should result
in some patchy blowing and drifting snow from the Devils Lake
region into the northern Red River Valley, so added that mention
to the forecast. These gustier winds are expected to decrease
again thru the evening with one more chilly night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A warming trend will commence for the weekend on into next week.
No signs of any pcpn through Sunday night.

Long wave trough off the northeast coast of Canada weakens through
the period. Another long wave trough over the north Pacific will
shift to the west coast of Canada. Northwest flow aloft becomes
southwest flow aloft by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a farther west solution then the GFS. Both the ECMWF
and GFS have trended farther west and north over the last couple
model runs. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon. High temps were
increased about a degree for Tue, increased two to three degrees for
Wed, and increased four to six degrees for Thu from yesterday
package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Thu Jan 12 201

VFR with brutally cold conditions tonight. VFR cigs moving in
by late tomorrow afternoon but latest guidance shows in the 6K to
8K range.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ049-052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ006-009-017-024-
     029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hoppes
AVIATION...Speicher



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