Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Issued at 1002 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Fcst in good shape overall. Minor tweeks made to sky cover as
skies pretty clear behind the exiting a good deal of
sun this aftn over E ND. Watching the lower clouds in Nebraska and
patchy lower clouds into Watertown SD area to see how they move.
These lower clouds likely will advect into the southeastern half
of the fcst area overnight. Temps today appear warmest S RRV with
now snow with highs 45-50 also a bit warmer eastern fcst area east
of ROX-GFK-VCY where a bit more southeast wind exists. Coldest
temps and likely to not reach freezing is the DVL-Langdon area
where winds are light easterly.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Concerns revolve around clouds and temperatures. Impacts will
remain minimal. Upper jet streak providing mid-high clouds will
continue to sink southward. Much of the day should be at least
party sunny. Strong warm air advection regime setting up.
Temperatures yesterday to the south within a similar airmass to
that which will be across the region where in the mid 40s to low
50s. Most guidance has been too cool lately in the non-snow areas,
and went with the higher side of guidance. This leads to mid 40s
to low 50s for max temps in the non snow areas, and low to mid 30s
where there is snow cover. Min temps tonight will depend on cloud
cover. Some guidance suggests low level moisture currently across
Nebraska will advect northward by later this afternoon, affecting
areas along and east of the valley tonight. This seems
reasonable, but predictability still too low to say for sure. At
any rate, temps should not drop too far considering the warm air
advection regime.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday...On Tue temps are likely to continue their
rise into the 50s to near 50 degrees along the snow free border
with South Dakota. Low pressure will be marching across the
Canadian prairies during this time and the forecast area will be
affected by the trailing cold frontal passage later Tue into the
night. Thermal profiles continue to indicate a shot of warm air
advection at 850 mb but moisture is scant for the most part. Main
impact would be potential for some freezing rain for a few hours
closer to the International border Tues overnight. Any other pcpn
would be some wraparound snow the first half of wed over MN as
column cools to below freezing.

Thursday through Sunday...The next chance for impactful weather
will come Thu in association with a hybrid structure. This would
tend to favor later Thu into Fri. With colder air in place pcpn
would likely be in the form of snow with MN again being the target
area. Increasing NW winds behind FROPA may introduce blowing and
drifting snow - related impacts. Clearing and unseasonably cold
weather again over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

VFR cigs through a majority of the period for a majority of the
region. Will be watching the potential for MVFR/IFR cigs east of
the Red River Valley tonight, likely affecting KBJI.




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