Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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