301
FXUS64 KLUB 261922
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A weak surface trough will slip southwestward into the forecast area
this evening which will be followed by modest surface cyclogenesis
across the Permian Basin to southeastern New Mexico on Monday. As a
result light northeasterly winds will veer to east to southeast on
Monday with only a small increase in wind speeds. However, no change
of air mass is expected, and despite a switch from downslope to
upslope flow, high temperatures Monday should be as warm to several
degrees warmer due to an increase in thicknesses, especially across
the southwestern half of the forecast area. Will continue to run
with a dry forecast, although a small minority of model solutions
are trying to produce high-based convection along the Caprock
escarpment where upslope might be able to overcome the cap. It is
certainly a pattern where this is not out of the question, but there
is not enough confidence at this point to insert a mention of
thunderstorms at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Upper ridging will being moving overhead Tuesday. Despite being
overhead, temps will actually be cooler than tomorrow`s temps. This
will be due mostly in part to the east to southeasterly surface flow
associated with a cold front. Highs will be coolest across the
Rolling Plains as a dryline will veer winds to the southwest by mid
to late afternoon across the Caprock. Convection is continuing to
look highly plausible along the dryline Tuesday evening as a
weakness moves across the overhead ridge. Precip chances will favor
the Rolling Plains. Storms that develop Tuesday will have the
opportunity to become strong to severe with hail and wind as the
primary threats. While storms should have sufficient forward speed
to minimize a widespread flooding threat, stronger storms will also
be capable of producing brief heavy downpours. The ridge will still
be overhead Wednesday, but models continue to disagree with rain
chances, specifically convection, Wednesday. There is consensus with
another weakness moving across the upper ridge, but the GFS keeps
precip on the light side with mostly showers being possible. The
ECMWF is more bullish with convection but keeps the heaviest precip
to our south and north. The current pattern being progged would
favor the GFS`s outcome. Additional thunderstorm chances will be
possible going into the weekend as the upper ridge pushes to the
east and a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the region.
The models diverge once again with the upper pattern this weekend.
The GFS keeps upper ridging mostly to our west while the ECMWF build
the ridge across the southcentral CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions to continue. West-northwest winds not quite as
gusty as previously expected and will back off with speeds in the
TAFs. A weak cold front that will be not much more than a wind
shift will bring light east-northeast winds to the terminals this
evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...07