Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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828 FXUS63 KDLH 081737 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around this afternoon and evening. A few storms could contain gusty winds to about 40 mph and pea size hail. - Quiet weather Sunday and Monday. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming up. A few strong thunderstorms are possible (15% chance) in north-central Minnesota later Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 An upper-level trough and some mid-level frontogenesis is causing some light to moderate rain out there this morning. This will continue moving southeast and should clear northwest Wisconsin by mid-morning or so. In the wake of that, there should be a period of partially sunny skies that will promote some diurnal heating. Most models, similar in many ways to yesterday, suggest some pretty dry conditions developing today (min RH to ~30%) with steep low-level lapse rates as high as 8-9C/km by the afternoon and early evening. As a result, some blustery northwest winds are expected along with the development of isolated showers and storms. These will be aided synoptically by several weak passing waves aloft this afternoon associated with a broader upper-level low over Ontario. Without a lot of moisture, many to most places likely won`t see much shower/storm activity, but for those that do, the steep low- level lapse rates could promote some fairly robust downdrafts that could be capable of producing some locally strong wind gusts around 40 to 45 mph or so, along with perhaps some pea size hail. After sunset, showers/storms diminish leading to quiet weather. On Sunday, temperatures are trending down a smidge with more upper-level waves cycling through. Some relatively cooler northwest flow may promote more stratus clouds through the day. Highs will likely top out in the 60s and winds will again be a bit blustery. High pressure moves in Sunday night into Monday, and Monday is looking like a slightly warmer and sunny day. Going into Tuesday, there`s starting to be a little more model agreement on a low pressure system developing and traversing west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of the Canadian border. An attendant cold/occluded front could promote a line of showers and storms. At this time, convective parameters look pretty unfavorable for severe weather (decent shear but low CAPE). We`ll have to keep an eye on how this evolves, but as of now, it doesn`t appear overly concerning. A fairly active pattern may continue into the middle and late week as models hint at a return to southerly flow (and warmer weather) following Tuesday`s system, then potentially more upper-level waves that could promote showers/storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Low pressure over northern Ontario keeps west to northwest winds across the Northland through the TAF period. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are most likely to affect far northeast Minnesota, including DLH and HIB, and northwest Wisconsin mainly 20Z - 03Z. Erratic outflow wind gusts from collapsing thunderstorm cores could produce gusts to 35 knots today and pea size hail. A line of MVFR ceilings is forecast to drop from north to south trailing a backdoor cold front associated with the low to our east later tonight into Sunday morning so winds will not entirely die off like a typical diurnal setup would allow. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 West winds will pick up in speed today around 10-15 mph and gusting to 20 mph. Winds will hold steady or decrease a bit with similar directions going into Sunday. There will be a bit of rain this morning, and perhaps isolated showers/storms this afternoon/evening (~20% chance). Winds become light Sunday night and swing around to the northeast. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...NLy MARINE...JDS