Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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814 FXUS63 KICT 291944 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms this afternoon - Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly into next week - Best rain chances late Thursday into Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, a summer-like pattern was present across the Plains with pulse convection developing amongst a weakly sheared environment. Satellite reveals an expansive cumulus field across the forecast area with zones of agitation. Expect isolated showers/storms through sunset. With shear values near 20 kt, the strongest updrafts may produce pea size hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph. More-widespread convection is expected towards dawn Thursday through the afternoon , especially west of Interstate 135, as a midlevel shortwave trough advances across the area. Similar to today, weak shear should limit the overall severe weather potential with the strongest storms capable of dime size hail and 50 mph winds. Another midlevel shortwave trough will emerge late Thursday into Friday yielding additional rain chances. The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. A pattern change may ensue towards the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging sliding in from the western CONUS. This would shunt precipitation chances east of the area with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A diurnally driven cumulus field has developed across portions of central, south central and southeast KS. To this point, CIGS have remained VFR and should do so for the remainder of the period. It remains to be seen the coverage of any showers/storms this afternoon. Due to this uncertainty, have left any mention of shra or tsra out for now. The best chance for showers/storms arrives towards sunrise Thursday at all sites except CNU. To address this potential have introduced a PROB30 group. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...BMB