Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN
SD AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN ND AND NERN SD...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE I-29 CORRIDOR AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED RATHER
MEAGER /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE /40+ KNOTS/...SO A FEW
MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS ARE LIKELY...EMBEDDED IN THE BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITIY
WILL MOVE E/SEWD FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 5 TO 6 PM.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
TAKING PLACE WITH A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT. PROFILES
UNDER THIS REGIME SUGGEST A HEAVILY MODIFIED PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THE WEAK WAVE REINTEGRATES WITH THE JET
STREAM AROUND MID WEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
BE THE END SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 14KTS BY 06Z...AND
UNDER 10KTS BY 10Z. FEW HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE CWA BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON VFR CONDS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR SCT-BKN MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS NRN NORTH DAKOTA TO
SEE IF THEY STREAM DOWN OVER THE KABR AND KATY TERMINAL CLOSER TO
12Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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