Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011737 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED SE OF THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT ONE BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTH CENTRAL MT. BASED ON
THE TIME ARRIVAL TOOL...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING
THIS CWA AFTER 0Z...OR CLOSE TO 2Z. THAT SAID...A FEW CAM
SOLUTIONS SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
WILL LEAVE CHC POPS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN AND THE ODD THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER OF THESE WEAK WAVES. ONCE THIS WAVE IS
THROUGH...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH NAM PROFILES SHOW A
DEGREE OF WEAK INSTABILITY SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TYPE STORMS IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAINLY JUST DEPENDS
ON THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE NEXT WAVE...TOPPING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE NOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. NAM
INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AND CONFIDENCE IS ALSO REDUCED AS
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
BULLSEYE...NAM WEST...GFS EAST. IT DOESNT HELP THAT THE GEM SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE...SO HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 POPS.
EVEN AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...PROFILES REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM SUPERBLEND MADE THIS MORNING TO THE EXTENDED.
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING STILL APPLIES. THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURE PROGS LOOK WARMEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS.
LATE TONIGHT MORE STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK


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