Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171511 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1011 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast is on track. No major changes are planned.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Dry and warm weather will be the rule today, with highs around 20
degrees above normal. High temperatures this time of year are
typically around 60 degrees. Relative humidity values bottoming out
around 15 to 25 percent west of the James River Valley today will be
accompanied by relatively light winds.

The 500mb pattern shows a ridge of high pressure over the
southwestern U.S, with zonal to northwesterly flow over Northern
Plains. The other feature to note is the trough beginning to slide
into western Canada, that will impact our weather midweek.  Low
pressure over British Columbia early this morning will track east
into central Saskatchewan by the end of the day today, deepening as
it slides east. Expect the sfc low to continue to deepen across
central and northern Manitoba Wednesday. A cold front will extend
south of this feature and cross our forecast area Wednesday morning,
bringing in breezy northwest winds and knocking down high
temperatures about 10 degrees. The potential still exists for strong
mixing to bring down stronger gusts, and will continue to monitor.
Relative humidity values will still fall to around 20 percent west
of the James River Valley, increasing fire weather concerns.
For the most part, the strongest winds will be east of this area
of concern, when RH values are lowest. High pressure will quickly
build in behind the cold front during the day Wednesday, with the
ridge overhead Wednesday evening.

The sfc ridge will exit to our east Wednesday night, with breezy
south winds developing Thursday afternoon, and highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

When the period opens Thursday night, mid and upper level heights
are beginning to fall in developing swrly flow aloft. That pattern
holds until Saturday afternoon when s/w energy works through the
region and the flow pattern aloft briefly switches to a more zonal
pattern before transitioning to northwest flow aloft early next
week. Low end precipitation chances remain in the forecast at this
time for the s/w energy moving across the region Friday night
through Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble table low level thermal
progs/guidance all still highlight Friday as potentially being the
warmest day of the period on breezy south-southwesterly mixing
winds, with a gradual/steady draw-down in warm conditions through
early next week to readings much closer to mid-October climo normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area over the next 24
hours. There could be some low level wind shear for a couple of
hours early Wednesday morning before winds from the surface
through 2kft agl all sync up from a northwesterly direction.




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