Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 110527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The main challenge in the short range forecast will be pcpn on
Saturday. For tonight should see diabatically driven clouds
dissipate by sunset. However, another weak wave evident in
satellite pics will track into and across the region late tonight
per PV anomaly progs. Should be too dry for any pcpn with this wx
feature, but wouldn`t be surprised to see some late night
mid/high clouds; and they may put a damper on temps overnight.
Ordinarily under a sfc high, one could go colder than model blend
over the valleys, but if those clouds materialize, that may not
pan out. So, will stick pretty close to model blend, but may cut
a degree or two off the prediction.

Friday should be mainly dry and mild under high pressure, with
temperatures near or slightly below normal. For Saturday, another
trof/wave aloft is expected to dig south toward the forecast area.
Sfc-500mb deep layer shear is quite impressive over the CWA, but
that will likely be balanced by marginal mid level lapse rates and
low to moderate amounts of MLcape. The best location for any
active wx over the region will probably be over western and parts
of southern South Dakota Saturday aftn/evening. But that said, it
appears the western third of the ABR CWA will have pretty decent
chances for pcpn on Saturday as the upper wave digs toward the
forecast area, and thus high sct pops will remain in the forecast.
All the clouds and potential rain may hold back temps a bit on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

When the period starts off on Saturday night, it appears we will
still be dealing with the upper level wave of low pressure right
over the region, with good chances for rain continuing. This upper
low gets a bit wound up by Sunday and becomes slow to depart, with
rain chances remaining in place during the daylight hours. By Sunday
evening, models finally push this system far enough east to allow
for drying conditions.

On Monday, models are in good agreement in showing dry conditions as
a brief upper level ridge passes overhead. Winds will turn to the
southeast as temps warm to around 80 degrees.

Uncertainty begins to show up by Tuesday and through the rest of the
period as pieces of shortwave energy move from west to east
across the Dakotas. Given low confidence on timing and placement
of these smaller waves, stuck close to SuperBlend POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise



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