Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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