Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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225
FXUS63 KABR 221955
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
255 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Continue to monitor the line of clouds developing over far E SD and
N Central MN, as this area still has DCAPE values of around 1300J/KG
and dewpoints in the 60s. This area had been put into a  been placed
in the SPC marginal risk area during the late morning update. Still
expect much of the activity to be SE of our CWA as we move into the
late afternoon hours. Strong gusty winds remain, with several
locations gusting out of the NW to 25-35mph at 18Z. The inverted
trough will continue to slowly pivot across N Central MN through 06Z
Thursday, extending from the sfc low tracking from W IA to Central
IL. Did put a small chance of fog portions of central and E areas.
However, if the dry air builds in like it`s been trying too, it will
be very difficult for any fog to form.

Dry high pressure will build in behind this feature, sliding from E
MT and S Saskatchewan this afternoon to much of W and Central ND by
06Z. The high will continue to slide E through the day Thursday,
resulting in not only dry conditions, but much less wind. It will be
centered over our CWA from 15-18Z Thursday.

The next chance of seeing any precip will likely hold off until late
Thursday night into early Friday morning over mainly N Central SD.
This will be associated with the passage of a warm front and
developing LLJ as the sfc high slides across WI. Otherwise, Friday
still looks hot, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
(although in the upper 80s to low 90s E of the James River.
Continued going slightly higher than guidance values for Friday. A
slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop
Friday night across W and Central SD.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

The extended period begins with a frontal boundary centered over the
CWA...with some lingering showers and thunderstorms possible across
mainly the central and eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday as
the front pushes across those areas and out of the CWA. A strong cap
will be in place through the morning hours...then the front will be
just about out of the area...so may be some limiting factors...and
therefore will keep pops on the lower side. High pressure then moves
in and will keep things dry Saturday night through the day Monday.
Precipitation chances will then be confined mainly to the western
and southern portions of the CWA as low pressure develops over the
central high plains...but a surface high remains to our north and
east.

High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal...mainly in
the upper 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

A small area of MVFR cigs will track across the far southeastern
CWA early this afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail
through the afternoon and into the first half of the nighttime
hours. MVFR cigs look to overspread the central and eastern CWA
after 06z and remain until shortly after sunrise on Thursday.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin



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