National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 152148
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING SNOW CHANCES THIS
EVENING...THEN EXTENT OF WARMING MONDAY/TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM/HIGH
WAA DRIVEN BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE E/SEWD THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SEWD. THE
OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. HUGE
TEMPERATURE DISPARITY ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS NEAR
ZERO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE 50S IN THE BLACK HILLS
REGION...WOW! IN FACT...THE TIGHTEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...WITH PIERRE IN THE TEENS AND PHILIP IN THE
40S. EXPECT THIS WARMER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AIDED BY AN INCREASING LLJ AT 925MB. THINK LOWS WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS OF MODEST DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
LEE OF THE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING PEAK WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. WITH
RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW...INSERTED BLOWING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST IN
THAT VERY LOCALIZED AREA...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH...WITH A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING/LIFT AND SATURATION...SO DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS EVALUATE.
BIGGER CHANGE FOR MONDAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TEMPS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT VERY MILD...WITH
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ABOVE ZERO. IN THE AFTERNOON...925MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS /ABOVE ZERO/ COMBINED WITH AN EFFICIENT
NORTHWEST MIXING REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPS IN SOME
TIME. HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST AND 40S SOUTH-CENTRAL WILL FEEL LIKE
A VIRTUAL HEATWAVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
WAA SIGNAL AT H8...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN
TOO LARGE ATTM TO RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE A MILD AS MONDAY...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 20S EAST...TO LOW 40S SOUTH-CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NEAR ZONAL INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES EAST AND AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WAS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS/GEM...BUT
HAS NOW COME MORE INTO LINE. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS MAY HANG ON TO QPF A LITTLE TOO LONG AS
THE SURFACE HIGH AND VERY DRY AIR TAKE OVER. ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY
PUSHES IN...AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT...THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL. DID DROP THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE DOWN A FEW DEGREES...AS IT
CAME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT INTENSITY AND TIMING DIFFERS AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH VFR VSBYS AND CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THIS HEAVIEST BAND WILL
MAINLY AFFECT KABR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SHIFT AS FAR EAST AS
KATY. THE AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN