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000
FXUS63 KABR 220121 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
821 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

Isolated convection continues to form over the southeastern cwa
so will keep in isold/sct pops overnight. Temperatures look okay
for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

The models all agree well through the first part of the short term
with cool Canadian high pressure sliding east across southern Canada
bringing prevailing cool northeast winds to our region. As this
occurs, a large upper level low pressure trough will kick out of the
southwest U.S. and into our region into Friday night. Through
Thursday night, low stratus and cool temperatures are expected
across our region. The current stratus this afternoon is expected to
lower through the night and deepen. Watertown has already fallen
below a thousand feet. There are also some indications by the models
of some very light qpf probably indicative of some drizzle.
Otherwise, there will still be some chances of showers and storms
across the eastern cwa yet tonight into Thursday. There was a
small area of rainfall lifting through the region late this
afternoon shown on radar.

As the Canadian high pressure area pushes east and the upper low
pressure trough moves in from the southwest, a stationary front to
our south will lift quickly north across the region Friday and
Friday night. Thus, after a cool and cloudy Thursday, Friday will
see the low clouds break up/move north along with warmer air
moving in. Some locations will be in the lower 80s southwest in
our cwa on Friday afternoon. Thursday and Thursday evening are
expected to be mainly dry with better chances of storms for later
Thursday night into Friday night as lift from the upper trough
moves in along with waa and increasing instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

The extended period will see a cooling trend as a deep upper trough
moves over the Plains on the weekend. Saturday will be the warmest
day with highs in the 70s.

The precip forecast is the biggest challenge due to model
differences regarding sfc low intensity on Saturday and Sunday. The
ECMWF wraps the low up more tightly and holds it farther west than
the GFS. Models are also hinting at some dry slotting, as well. The
GFS settles a potent upper low over the northern Plains at the start
of the week, keeping showers in the forecast. However, while the
ECMWF follows this trend, it is about 48 hours slower to develop.
Needless to say, stuck with consensus model blends which keep low
pops in through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

VFR or even MVFR cigs are expected at KABR/KMBG overnight. KATY
and KPIR will likely see cigs lower to IFR late tonight. MVFR fog
may accompany those low cigs at KATY.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TDK