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000
FXUS63 KABR 230529 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 841 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Stratus clouds off to our northwest will be moving in tonight as
cooler Canadian air advects in. Updated to increase cloud cover
for the night.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

A frontal boundary has pushed east of the area this afternoon with
less humid conditions filtering into the region via breezy
northwesterly winds. Cooler temperatures will continue filtering
into the area behind a low pressure crossing southern Canada. Good
pressure rises moving in from the northwest will keep the breezy
winds going through tonight, mainly in north central South
Dakota. The winds, along with an increasing mid-level stratus
deck, should keep low temperatures from falling into the 40s.

Temps at 850 mb will drop into the single digits above 0C by 12Z
Friday, or 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal for this time of
year. Highs on Friday will only warm into the 60s and lower 70s.
These readings are 10 to 15 degrees below climo.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The long term portion of the forecast will start off with a mostly
dry and cool pattern. An upper low moving thru Ontario into the
western Great Lakes region during the upcoming weekend will bring a
relatively cool, northwesterly flow pattern to the Dakotas and
Minnesota. Can`t rule out a few instability type showers in our
northeast CWA on Saturday closer to some mid level energy rotating
around the aforementioned upper low. Temps will remain a good 10-15
degrees below normal for both highs and lows Saturday and Sunday.

Conditions should quickly rebound closer to more summer like levels
early next week as an upper ridge begins to build into the region.
Warmer temps will result as readings return to around normal if not
slightly above by Tuesday. The pattern will also become more active
by Wednesday into Thursday as some more mid level energy works into
the region over the top of the ridge. Showers and thunderstorms will
again be possible at that time.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

CAA stratus clouds will be making their way southeast tonight from
the northwest, affecting all locations. They are expected to be
MVFR/low VFR as they move through overnight and through the day.
Breezy northwest winds of 15 to 30 knots are also expected.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin