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000
FXUS63 KABR 020949
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A FEW LOCATIONS FROM
DROPPING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SEEING
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION /AND THE
LOCATIONS UNDER CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES
CLEAR/. GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS STILL OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WINDS ARE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S BELOW AND 30S BELOW ZERO. HEADLINES LOOK FINE
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW
ZERO ARE STILL ANTICIPATED MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
ALSO AGAIN ANTICIPATED IN THE 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE...FLIRTING WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY...RETURN FLOW WINDS SET UP AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW WARM SURFACE TEMPS
WILL GET GIVEN RECENT SNOW COVER.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST APPEARS TO SKIRT MAINLY NORTH
OF THIS CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO BRING BETTER SNOWFALL CHANCES TO OUR CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS ALWAYS...MODEL DO VARY QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THESE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS...BUT
WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF DID TREND TOWARD
THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN...NORTHWEST FLOW. STILL
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE OUT PERIODS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS STILL
NOT IN ALL THAT MUCH AGREEMENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS OF QPF
WITH EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND NOW ADD TO THAT AN ADDITIONAL
LAYER OF DIFFICULTY IN THAT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NO
LONGER IN TIMING/STRENGTH AGREEMENT REGARDING THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT COLD FROPA AND POST COLD FROPA LOW LEVEL CAA...SUGGESTING
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...WHICH COULD PUT A HALT ON THOSE
30S AND 40S FOR THURSDAY.

WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE MODEL TRENDS ARE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THAT THURSDAY IS DAY 5 RIGHT NOW. STILL HAVE
SOME TIME TO FINE TUNE THURSDAY MAX T VALUES. OTHERWISE...THE
BEGINNING AND END OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL COLD
WITH SOME WARMING STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AFTER THOSE CLOUDS PASS...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OR SKC IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 15
KNOTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-
     SPINK-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR CORSON-
     DEWEY-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN