Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 182009
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.