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000
FXUS63 KABR 292030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OF BASICALLY WEST OF A MOBRIDGE TO GANN VALLEY LINE...AND
CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ALSO BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT -> SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TONIGHT BEING DISPLACED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON /POSSIBLE WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT ON
FRIDAY?/. THEN...COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FORECAST PERIODS SHOULD BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
GENERATING A LIGHT DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS SUGGESTING LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH EAST/NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY LOW LEVEL WINDS
OFF A STRONG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH
TYPICALLY YIELDS DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET
OF THE ATMOS AROUND HERE WHILE SNOW IS BEING PRODUCED ALOFT. THE
GFS IN BUFKIT CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ISSUE SATURATING LOW
LEVELS...WHILE THE NAM12 DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL LAYER
OF DRY AIR TO HAVE TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA /MRLS AND
KATY/. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF DRY ENTRAINMENT LEADS TO A POTENTIAL
BUSTED SNOW FORECAST. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT APPX 60 PERCENT
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS TOP OUT AT GENERALLY A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO AS MUCH AS 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A 1040MB SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIGHT SNOW BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF
WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IF LEFT IN THE AIR MASS...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. STILL QUESTION AS
TO PERHAPS THE DRY AIR WITH THE HIGH CONFINING SNOW TO AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH...BUT CAN ADJUST THIS AS TIME APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE TO START OUT NEXT WEEK AS
THERE WILL BE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. ONE ON MONDAY AND
ANOTHER QUICKLY FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL. SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK MOVER SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...BUT COULD BE SOME IMPACTS NONETHELESS
IF GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG...MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THESE TWO SITES AT 18Z...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT FIRST AT KPIR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS KMBG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

KABR/KATY...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE AS TO
WHEN CLOUDS EVENTUALLY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
TAF FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLEARING TRENDS LATER AFTER SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ANALYSIS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN