Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Latest local and regional radar along with water vapor imagery
show the closed upper low now over the Turtle Mountains.
Rainshowers advancing southwest around the low from Manitoba and
Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Another line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms that formed along an outflow boundary
now into the southern James River Valley moving northeast with
time. Showers expected north central rest of tonight and have
followed the HRRR with likely to scattered rainshowers. Central
and southern generally dry rest of tonight. Forecast remains on
track with remnants of the mid level low still maintaining a
presence Friday with the sky clouding back up with daytime heating
followed by isolated to scattered showers.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

latest trends have the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
north greatly diminishing as the convergence zones from
thunderstorm outflows diminish and the sun sets. New band of
showers and thunderstorms forming across the southeast. Expect
these to remain non-severe and track slowly east for the remainder
of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

KISN and KMOT will be meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs
through the TAF period. The remaining terminals will experience
vfr cigs, however bkn conditions at around 5kft to 6kft can be
expected. A vcsh will be carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and
then again 18z Friday until 00z Saturday. A vcsh was added to the
KBIS taf for Friday afternoon.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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