Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
738 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HAVE TIMED THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THEN DECREASED
CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE SOUTH...FROM BOWMAN AND BISMARCK TO ELLENDALE AND JAMESTOWN
FOR AROUND DAYBREAK. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SAME BALLPARK. THIS IS
ALSO THE AREA THAT RECEIVED LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IN ADDITION TO
AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT
FORCING...COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN SPREADING THIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AREAS AFFECTED
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AN PRETTY NARROW BAND WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.

EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEREAFTER. STILL A COOL
NIGHT IN STORE...BUT WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WARM...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP BUMP OUR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FAR
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

QUIET/ZONAL FLOW AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACKS NORTH AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
EMBEDDED LEAD S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF AN ALASKAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS THEN DEPICTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AT KJMS BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z/27TH.
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK KBIS-KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM



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