Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SEVERE THREAT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL ALLOW THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPERE. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH.
STILL A LITTLE CONCERN OF SOMETHING STRONG DEVELOPING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS...BUT
THE CHANCES FOR THIS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE EASTERLY
PUSHING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE
TORNADO WATCH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES...WHICH I EXPECT TO BE DROPPING BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG AS OF 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND OVER 1.3 IN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
NEAR MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AIDING IN THE SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. WILL BE SENDING UP A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GIVING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON HOW CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN GENERAL...MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
TRIED TO DEVELOP A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THEN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS EAST. LATEST WRF
DEVELOPS A QLCS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND TRACKS IT ACROSS THE
STATE. THE 12Z HOPWRF KEEPS CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE CWA
TODAY WITH CELLS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN AND
TRACKING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. NO MATTER WHAT EVENTUALLY
HAPPENS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST OBVIOUS THREATS...BUT VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LESSEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...MUCH EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN A NORTH FLOW. EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH LATE WEEK. NOW INDICATIONS ARE THIS RIDGE WILL BE
FURTHER TO EAST...ALLOWING MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA TO RESIDE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTH WITH LOWER STRATUS REMAINING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MANY LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



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