Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

A few light showers are trying to make their way into far
northwest North Dakota early this morning. Therefore, have added
some low precipitation chances and adjusted cloud cover a bit over
this area. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Current surface analysis places low along the Manitoba/Ontario
border, with high stretching along the Rockies. Upper level
analysis places low over the Manitoba/Ontario border with ridge
building over the Sierra into the Pacific Northwest. Multiple
short wave noted rotating around the low.

For today...a similar day to yesterday is expected with showers
developing in the afternoon as the next wave wraps into the area.
A few thunderstorms will also be possible with modest instability
noted. Winds will again be on the windy side as moderate pressure
gradient remains in place.

Tonight....showers will gradually dissipate in the evening with
lost of daytime heating. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected as
upper low works its way to the south-southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper low will work easterly near Lake Superior on Monday,
bringing shower chances mainly to central and eastern portions of
North Dakota. With that said, another windy day is expected across
the area.

Quieter weather returns to start the work week as ridge tries to
work its way into the area, bringing a modest warming trend.
Models are hinting towards a more unsettled pattern towards the
end of the week, but are in disagreement on the placement of some
key features.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Although vfr cigs/vsbys will continue through this TAF period,
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
occur from 18z Sunday through 02Z Monday. Main hazard will be brief
gusty winds, possibly to 50kt, favoring KMOT/KBIS/KJMS during the
above time period. Outside of any showers/thunderstorms, expect
northwest winds sustained at 20kt with gusts to 35kt from 18z
through sunset Sunday evening.




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