Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230002
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
702 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Current radar loops show scattered showers across northeast North
Dakota. Any showers should left this evening should remain along
the edge of the forecast area. Winds will diminish quickly this
evening and this will also allow the Red Flag warning expire for
the southwest. Current forecast looks ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

See the fire weather discussion below for current and expected
conditions through early this evening.

Tonight and Sunday the Northern Rockies ridge builds and expands
eastward into our area. Surface high pressure continues to push into
our area from Montana and south central Canada, continuing to bring
dry air with decreasing winds. A comfortable night tonight with
clear skies and overnight lows in the 50s.

The surface high settles over North Dakota by daybreak Sunday, then
moves east as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Light
winds will become southeasterly gradually during the day Sunday at
5 to 10 mph. Expect sunny skies with highs from the upper 70s/lower
80s from the Turtle Mountains to James Valley...ranging to the upper
80s/lower 90s closer to the Montana border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

As the upper level ridge shifts east Sunday evening, low level
southerly winds increase in response to a developing surface low
pressure in eastern Montana. This surface low is being supported by
a closed mid/upper level low moving east from central Alberta Sunday
night, into central Manitoba by early Tuesday. In doing so, surface
low pressure from Alberta/Montana will also move east across the
northern plains, in the form of an advancing cold front, which is
forecast to slide into western ND by Monday afternoon, and exit the
James River Valley late Monday night. This will set up a round of
showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon in
western/central ND, and better chances Monday evening in central and
eastern ND. The Storm Prediction Center depicts central ND within a
Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. Expectations of isolated
severe thunderstorms forming along the cold front during the
afternoon with ample instability which will continue into the
evening hours. Will monitor this over the next couple of days. Highs
will return into the lower 90s Monday afternoon across central and
southern ND ahead of the cold front.

By Tuesday, the system supporting the cold front from Monday/Monday
night will have shifted far enough east, allowing a west to
northwesterly flow of dry air and calmer conditions Tuesday, and
most likely continuing through Wednesday. High temperatures will
be in the upper 70s north to lower/middle 80s south both days.
A shortwave trough is depicted moving through the upper level ridge,
but it is weaker than previous model runs. Model consensus has
lowered the threat of thunderstorms for the Thursday timeframe. The
ridge is then progged to rebuild Friday/Saturday. Highs in the 80s
Tuesday through Thursday, then 80s/90s for Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Surface low pressure across Manitoba will continue to pull low
level cool air into central and eastern North Dakota. This will
support scattered clouds at 4 thousand AGL at KMOT. There may be
some stratus clouds that move to KJMS after 08Z but low confidence
in MVFR at KJMS at this time. Left all TAFs VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Temperatures were in the mid and upper 80s with northwest winds
between 20 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values had lowered to
around 20 percent as of 2 pm CDT this afternoon. These conditions,
combined with very dry fuels, are expected to continue into the
early evening hours, resulting in critical fire weather conditions
over southwest and portions of south central North Dakota. Thus the
Red Flag Warning will continue to be valid until 9PM CDT this
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV



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