Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191714
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY WHERE
GOOD MIXING WILL MAX OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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