Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

Issued at 936 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Made some minor tweaks to the showers which are all widely
scattered and added more persistent clouds into early Thursday

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Main feature tonight is the mid level low pressure creating
widespread clouds and scattered showers. Northwest winds will
gradually subside around sunset. Expanded the scattered showers
further south this evening based on radar but only light rain
amounts expected. Otherwise current forecast trending ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Continued cool temperatures through Thursday highlights the short
term forecast.

Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across
southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North
Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight. Cloud
cover is expected to decrease west to east late tonight into
Thursday morning. A cool airmass will remain in place on Thursday
marked by the 12 UTC NAEFS ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures in
their lowest 10 to 2.5 percentiles. Highs around 70 are expected
area wide. Given good agreement, a blend of the 12-15 UTC global
and high resolution suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Thunderstorms Friday and moderating temperatures Sunday into next
week highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on a long wave trough
to propagate across the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. This
feature marks the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across
western and central North Dakota in the extended forecast.
Thereafter, a very low amplitude, broad upper level ridge is
favored Sunday into early next week. This would suggest a
potential return to near normal temperatures with highs in the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Widespread mvfr ceilings are expected to move progressively over
KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS tonight into Thursday morning as a large mid
level low pressure area moves through North Dakota. Northwest
winds g30kt will diminish by sunset to less than 15kts. Conditions
improving to VFR after 10z central and after 18z east Thursday.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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