Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200616
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOW AN AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WEST
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES
THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT THE CLOUD SHIELD TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING AND THEN ERODE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN PER RAP13 AND NAM12. MAIN UPDATES WERE TO RAISE
MIN TEMPS WEST BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS RELUCTANT TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THIS. OTHERWISE...REMAINING PORTIONS OF FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER WESTERN INTO
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO ERODE. LATER
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS ERODE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
CONTINUES TO CREATE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE.

A 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE...AND A DOWN SLOP
COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HAS KEPT WINDS RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE RECORDED ALONG
THE JAMES VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET.

LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MARKED DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRIER AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS A WELCOME WARM UP THIS WEEKEND
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND.

THE REST OF WEEK WILL BE RATHER DRY AND BENIGN WITH A WARMING TREND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS TO A ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS KEEPS
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS
COULD COMBINE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TO CREATE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING OVER KISN/KDIK/KBIS...WHILE VFR CIGS ARE MAINTAINED AT
KMOT/KJMS. THE MVFR AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO KMOT BETWEEN
12Z-21Z THURSDAY. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
ERODING BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO LOW VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS






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