Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021958
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS SUPPORTED
BY 12 UTC WRF HIRES ARW/NMM AND THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF THE
HRRR...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN US 83 AND THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS PUSHED WELL
OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM MODE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...BUT REPORTS
THUS FAR HAVE NOT INDICATED ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING.

BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE INDICATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA) IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS
ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD PERCEPTION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A RAINY 4TH OF JULY EVENING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT WERE TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLIER LIKE THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING...PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEARBY AROUND FIREWORKS TIME. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD SPARK AN
ISOLATED STORM.

AFTER A RAINY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND
AROUND 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE TWO MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIS/KJMS. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SMOKE BY 00Z SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
KBIS/KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...SCHECK



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