Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Slight increase to sky cover in the southwest and a blend of the
latest obs completes the update.

UPDATE Issued at 835 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

As of 14 UTC, a surface warm front had propagated into eastern
North Dakota. This front is expected to stall out across northeast
and north central North Dakota through the afternoon. A very mild
day is expected across the west and south cental with highs in
the 40s to the lower 50s with favorable downsloping westerly
winds. Some high level cloud cover will be a limiting factor to
temperatures reaching the upper bounds of the 00-06 UTC guidance
envelope. Across the far north central and the Turtle Mountains,
mixing will be less where the front stalls, thus, highs today will
be much cooler, only in the 20s and 30s.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Quiet weather continues this morning with some upper level cloud
cover passing through the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Current surface analysis places low over eastern Hudson Bay, with
high stretching through the plains. Upper level analysis places
broad ridge over the western United States.

For today into tonight, ridge will continue to gradually push
towards the east bringing milder temperatures to the area along
with quiet weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Ridge passes over the area early Monday bringing one more mild day
before a clipper passes through the region. This will bring
increasing winds Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with much
cooler temperatures on Tuesday in its wake. Warmer air starts
pushing into the area on Wednesday. Broad isentropic lift develops
with warm air surging in aloft, while temperatures at the surface
will be slower to warm. This may result in a period of freezing
rain or sleet over the area Wednesday morning, with the greatest
chances to the north and east. Chances for freezing precipitation
shift towards the east in the afternoon as lift diminishes over
western and most of central North Dakota.

Mainly quiet weather expected over the area on Thursday. Models
then differ a bit on some key features, but overall a slightly
unsettled pattern sets up with occasional disturbances moving
through the region resulting in low end precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions through the 18Z TAFs. Winds will increase late in the
period as a clipper begins an eastward push across the area.




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