Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 131830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND RENVILLE COUNTIES WITH THIS UPDATE.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR WILLISTON SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. THE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z...AS
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW WHERE THERE
HAVE BEEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME ON
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS WE ENTER A HOLDING PATTERN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
UPDATE.

THE FULL 00 AND 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE
08-11 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS GREATER QPF THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS. OBSERVED TRENDS
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THE 12 UTC SUITE WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY EVALUATED AS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AS DEPICTED
IN 00 AND 06 UTC SUITES. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING...AND SNOW IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY TRANSISTIONING TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. MFVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL SITES...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY COME FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH


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