Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
425 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Current surface analysis places low over eastern Hudson Bay, with
high stretching through the plains. Upper level analysis places
broad ridge over the western United States.

For today into tonight, ridge will continue to gradually push
towards the east bringing milder temperatures to the area along
with quiet weather.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Ridge passes over the area early Monday bringing one more mild day
before a clipper passes through the region. This will bring
increasing winds Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with much
cooler temperatures on Tuesday in its wake. Warmer air starts
pushing into the area on Wednesday. Broad isentropic lift develops
with warm air surging in aloft, while temperatures at the surface
will be slower to warm. This may result in a period of freezing
rain or sleet over the area Wednesday morning, with the greatest
chances to the north and east. Chances for freezing precipitation
shift towards the east in the afternoon as lift diminishes over
western and most of central North Dakota.

Mainly quiet weather expected over the area on Thursday. Models
then differ a bit on some key features, but overall a slightly
unsettled pattern sets up with occasional disturbances moving
through the region resulting in low end precipitation chances
Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period with a light
west to southwest flow.




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