Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES FROM STANLEY TO BEULAH...BUT STANLEY OBSERVATIONS NOT
INDICATING ANY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND APPROACH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES REMAINS FROM AROUND TIOGA
AND STANLEY SOUTH TO AROUND BEULAH AND GLEN ULLIN. A LOOK AT
WEATHER CAMS NEAR SUNSET INDICATED MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOTHING
MORE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE
FAR WEST. LOWERED SKY COVER EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO OBSERVATIONS FROM KISN AND USING SURROUNDING OBS AT
CROSBY/TIOGA/STANLEY/WATFORD CITY TO ISSUE A TAF BUT WITH NO
SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AT KISN.

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND PRESUMED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT KISN...WITH
VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND
ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. HAVE VCSH AT KISN BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






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