Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POSSIBLY SEVERE)...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST...AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED TO PLAGUE A PORTION OF
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY FROM WATFORD CITY NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND AS FAR EAST AS AROUND MINOT. VISIBILITIES HAD
IMPROVED TO 2-6 MILES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE BORDER OF
MT/SD/WY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WAS KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE BASED
AND MIXED LAYER CAPES SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND
HAVE SEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS.
FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WOULD EXPECT
SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL - AND WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 5.5-6.5 C/KM ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED STORMS - AT LEAST NOT APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH TIME HOWEVER.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL SEE HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...BUT KEPT HIGH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
MENTION UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

YET ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR AND CAPE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT
THIS TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE LONG TERM CAN BEST BE CATEGORIZED AS A ROLLER COASTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY
EXITS THE REGION. THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE SEVERE AS
CAPE...SHEAR AND FORCING REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...4TH
OF JULY ACTIVITIES COULD BE IMPACTED. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVENING OF THE 4TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL SWING FROM THE 70S AND LOW 80S LATE THIS
WEEK...TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS AT KISN AND KMOT...BUT NOW
EXPECTED ONLY TO 2-6 MILES. VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO LOW/MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

WEAK SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE KJMS AREA BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KISN/KDIK AT 18Z...AND
AT KMOT/KBIS BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AT KISN AND
KDIK TO KMOT AND KBIS FROM AROUND 21Z-03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV


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