Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
926 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Broad area of low cloud cover remains over much of western and
central North Dakota and latest HRRR guidance keeps this in for
much of the night. Exception to this will be over the far
southwest where skies look to gradually clear. Concern for that
area may be some patchy fog developing later on, as visibility has
already dropped down some in Baker, Montana. Have addressed each
of these concerns in latest update.

UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Light showers continue over the far southwest part of North
Dakota in modest cyclonic flow as a weak short wave passes
through. Expect these showers to taper off early this evening and
shift off to the southeast. Have adjusted precipitation chances to
account for this.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

No forecast highlights in the short term period.

Currently, models have not performed very well at all with low
level stratus today across west and central ND. While an area from
Mountrail County southeast through the southern James River Valley
has scattered out/cleared, all other areas remain overcast. Will
based sky cover forecast for the next several hours on current
satellite and then blend to high res guidance. Models indicate a
bkn sky cover tonight though right now thinking low VFR.

Will keep showers in the forecast southwest this afternoon and
evening with Bowman radar indicating decent returns there at the

Much warmer Thursday with more sun expected and weak WAA as we
remain in a cyclonic flow pattern until Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A mid level S/WV trough moving through the Northern Plains will
bring a chance for rain showers to the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. Thereafter a building upper level ridge will
result in a mainly dry weather pattern over the weekend and
through early next week along with a nice moderation in
temperatures, with highs in the 50s & 60s this weekend. Ridge
will then shift east next Monday night transitioning our flow
aloft to southwesterly with increasing chances for precipitation
early to mid week.

Towards the end of next week an increasingly active weather
pattern will eventually bring in cooler temperatures once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Areas of MVFR cigs will remain over many parts of western and
central North Dakota through the overnight hours. Improvement to
VFR conditions is expected Thursday morning over all locations.




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