Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170701
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
101 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 101 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Earlier introduced chance for light rain west into parts of the
far north central where a band of light precipitation is tracking.
Observations in eastern Montana did confirm some of the moisture
was reaching the ground. Will maintain this for the early morning
update. Sky cover was also modified based on latest satellite
imagery.



UPDATE Issued at 921 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Just adjusted cloud cover lower across much of the central and
east as only the far west has any clouds as of 9 pm CST. Some
light rain showing up on Billings radar but HRRR runs do not bring
this into the west neither does CONSShort guidance. Will leave out
pops tonight for now.

UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Based primarily on current wind conditions and snow cover lowered
the minimum temperatures across the James River Valley and the
western Devils lake Basin. For the sky grids slowed the cloud
increase until late later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mild and mainly dry conditions highlight the short term period.

Currently, upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains into
south central Canada. Westerly surface flow and 850mb temperatures
of +10 to +15C contributing to another mild day. SCT-BKN upper
level clouds and some areas seeing light winds under 5 MPH has
hindered the warmup in some locations across west and central ND,
while other areas have warmed above their previous forecast
highs. Thus a tricky afternoon temperature forecast but overall
mild and well above seasonal normals.

Ridge axis continues to our east tonight allowing southwest flow
into the region and a cold front into the central Dakotas. This is
expected to be a dry frontal passage with the main result an
increase in clouds from west to east in advance of an embedded
wave. Temperatures tonight remain mild in the upper 20s to mid
30s.

The potent embedded S/WV trough slides east into eastern Montana
by 12Z Friday, then across North Dakota Friday daytime. Models
have been keying in on bringing QPF to my north Friday
morning/afternoon so introduced chance POPs there. Cooler
temperatures due to weak CAA and more sky cover, though still very
mild in the upper 30s and 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

The long term period will be highlighted by continued mild
temperatures through early next week, followed by a cool-down
thereafter. For precipitation chances, three well defined waves
look to bring moisture to our region Sunday night-Monday, across
the north Tuesday/Tuesday night, then again late in the period
Thursday/Thursday night.

Overall models are in fair agreement with all three waves and thus
the Forecast Builder model blend inserted high chance to likely
POPs for all three above mentioned periods across the region.

Temperatures profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow for the first
two S/WV`s as we remain warm. The late week system will occur
under cooler conditions favoring snow, with accumulations very
possible.

Definitely a more active period beginning Sunday night and
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 101 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Although vfr cigs/vsbys are expected through the TAF period, a bkn
mid level cloud deck is expected at KISN/KDIK until 17Z Friday. A
vcsh was carried at KISN until 09z Friday. This is associated with a
weak cold front which will slide through western/central ND between
06z and 15z Friday. Expect low level wind shear at KISN/KDIK/KBIS
through Friday morning. Surface winds will shift westerly with
sustained winds between 15kt and 20kt.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS



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