Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1012 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Little change was required with this update for tonight other
than to add a drizzle mention to areas impacted by fog per
observed trends through 02 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Showers continue to slowly move eastward through the James River
valley. Slight changes were made to POPs to reflect the latest
radar trends.

Low ceilings and periods of reduced visibilities are expected to
persist across much of western and central areas through
Wednesday morning. Additionally, the latest 21Z-23Z runs of the
RAP and HRRR models provide good agreement for patchy dense fog in
western and central areas. Fog development is expected to start in
the southwest and south central, expanding northward forming along
a corridor ahead of the occluding front entering western North
Dakota. The forecast has been adjusted with increased fog
coverage for tonight through much of Wednesday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

In the short term, concerns are an isolated thunderstorm threat
this afternoon south central, and widespread showers south central
and east central tonight.

At 2 pm CDT a warm frontal boundary extended across eastern
Montana into western South Dakota. This front will lift northeast
tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough was identified on satellite moving
into the western Dakotas. This feature is flattening the h500
ridge and generating low/mid level vertical motion. Increasing
southerly low level flow over the frontal boundary should
maintain and focus the best precipitation chances across the James
river valley, north through the western Devils lake basin region.
A narrow band of elevated cape will support an isolated
thunderstorm threat for few hours late this afternoon east of
highway 83.

The short range CAM models are favoring some fog formation across
central north dakota in low level upslope flow early tonight.
This forcing should end with a wind shift to the northwest after
midnight across central north dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

On Wednesday, the warm frontal boundary will move east through the
region allowing a westerly mixing wind. Similar conditions are
forecast Thursday with a pacific type cold front. Warmer
temperatures both days will result in temperatures into the mid
60s Wednesday to lower 70s Thursday across much of western and
south central North Dakota. Mid 50s to mid 60s are expected to the

Cooler air will return for the weekend with the next shortwave
expected to bring scattered showers across the region Friday
night and Saturday. Highs by Saturday will be in the 40s to lower
50s. Seasonal Temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected Sunday
through Tuesday with scattered showers in general cyclonic flow


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

LIFR and IFR ceilings will prevail across much of central and
northwest North Dakota tonight into Wednesday. Fog is also expected
to expand in coverage across these areas through the night into
Wednesday morning. For KDIK and southwest North Dakota, fog and
low stratus may develop briefly tonight with easterly upslope
winds before winds turn to the west behind an occluding front.




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