Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 182338
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE REMOVED ALL EVENING POPS
EXCEPT FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST THROUGH 9 PM. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND FOG TONIGHT
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 1930 UTC...AND THE 16-17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO OR
LANDSPOUT PARAMETER HAS A LOCAL MAXIMA ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY. THUS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM WEEKEND RAINS...AREAS
OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DRY DAY IN THE FORECAST UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEFORE A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AS UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SATURATED WITH
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN A CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AND THE RECENT
RAINS. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT AERODROMES
EXCEPT FOR A VCFG FROM 09-13 UTC AT KJMS WHERE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH





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