Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240845 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
345 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorm potential tonight highlights the short term
forecast.

Morning elevated convection across the James River Valley and far
south central North Dakota is expected to become focused across
the northern Red River Valley after 10 UTC per observed radar
trends through 08 UTC and the 06-07 UTC HRRR iterations.
Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far
northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level
low.

For tonight, the 00-06 UTC high resolution suites are in agreement
on convection developing this afternoon across eastern Wyoming in
association with the shortwave across the desert southwest this
morning. The consensus is for this convection to potentially
propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through
the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and
moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough
extending into southwest North Dakota. Given marginal moisture and
shear, severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

An active weather pattern through the weekend highlights the
extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global and ensemble suites are in agreement on
potential phasing Wednesday across the Northern Plains of the
upper level low across southern Saskatchewan this morning with the
aforementioned shortwave from the short term. This would favor
likely showers and thunderstorms. Will disregard the 00 UTC NAM
given likely convective feedback driving is anomalously deep low
Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall, cloud cover from morning
convection may limit insolation and instability build up through
the day and the severe convective threat. Thus, the SPC Day 2
Convective Outlook has a marginal risk only across the far
southern James River Valley of central North Dakota. The active
weather pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continues into the weekend under favorable southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact KJMS through 10 UTC
this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the 06
UTC TAF cycle across western and central North Dakota.
Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase across western and
central North Dakota Tuesday night through Wednesday.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA



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