Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 150631

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Arctic cold front had pushed through the I-94 corridor before
midnight. Low clouds and areas of light snow were behind/north of
this front. Expect northerly winds generally at 15 to 25 mph, but
noted an area of eastern Montana and far western North Dakota where
northerly winds were gusting to around 35 mph. This area is where
models depict the strongest 3-hr pressure rises, and models indicate
this strongest pressure rise bubble will propagate south along the
MT/ND border through sunrise. Thus do not expect such strong winds
early this morning in central ND.

Otherwise, previous forecast update included lowering expected
snowfall amounts. This seems reasonable, and made only minor changes
in precip chances for the early morning hours. Also adjusted
temperatures a bit. At midnight, temps in the northwest were in the
teens with mid 30s south central. Continued cold advection expected
this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 959 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Some minor updates for timing of precipitation dropping south
tonight. Biggest change was to drop snow totals. Used a blend of
short term guidance with the previous forecast. This lowered
amounts to generally 1-2 inches along and north of the Hwy 200
corridor. With generally a half inch or less south of this area.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

For the early evening update, only a couple of changes to the
going forecast. Precipitation was moving in just a little faster
than forecast so updated pops. Also, decent pressure rises over
southern Saskatchewan with gusty north winds. Bumped up wind a
little late tonight through Thursday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Current surface analysis places low near Winnipeg, with cold front
stretching off to the west near the international border. Upper
level analysis places trough stretching from northern Manitoba
towards the Pacific northwest, with potent wave sliding across the
Canadian plains into the northern plains. Some light snow is
starting to work its way into the far northern portion of the
state. Ahead of the front, mild temperatures remain.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, cold front will
continue to settle to the south with snow gradually developing
from north to south. Initially, temperatures could be warm enough
for some rain to develop, but will switch over to snow. Models
continue to place the greatest amount of snow over northern
portions of the area, but have backed off a tad on snow amounts.
With that said, breezy winds could lead to some blowing snow. Much
colder airmass moves in behind the front.

On Thursday, snow comes to an end from north to south as surface
high settles into the area. Temperatures will remain quite cold as
high temperatures will be similar or not much higher than
overnight lows. Quiet and cold weather expected overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Surface high settles off to the southeast on Friday with warmer
air starting its return bringing a return to near seasonal
temperatures. Near normal temperatures remain into Saturday before
the next front slides through the area bringing snow chances.
Still some discrepancy remains in placement of snow for Saturday
night into Sunday as GFS focuses on the southern portion of the
state and ECMWF the northern.

Cold air then returns for the start of the week with single digit
highs on Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A strong cold front, just pushing through the I-94 corridor near
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS at this time will slide into SD through 12z Thursday.
At all terminals, expect light snow with cigs/vsbys in the mvfr/ifr
range behind the cold front - thus mvfr/ifr at all TAF sites. Gusty
northerly winds to 35 knots expected over far western ND early this
morning. Otherwise gusty northerly winds to 25kt in central ND.
This will result in areas of blowing snow.

Improving conditions to vfr from north to south, beginning around
12z-14z at KISN/KMOT and by around 18z at KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.




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