000
FXUS63 KBIS 090358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE.
FURTHERMORE...TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW (40 KNOTS AT 850MB)
SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING MUCH OVERNIGHT.
FINALLY...CIRRUS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET ARCING OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER NIGHTTIME COOLING.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TURBULENT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS UPWARDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST
BREEZE EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WHERE SNOWMELT OCCURRED TODAY.

LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 20S/L30S OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
EVEN MILDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN
THE 40S WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST...READINGS
TOPPING 60 DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA IN THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AFTER A VERY MILD SUNDAY OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ARCTIC IN NATURE...THUS THOUGH
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD NOT REACH LEVELS SEEN SUNDAY...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WYOMING/SD/NE BORDER.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA MAY GET CLIPPED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER PACIFIC AIR MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY...LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT HIGHS 30 TO
40 ACROSS THE STATE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
MILDER AIR MOVES EASTWARD BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S/40S OR 40S/50S. THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
UPPER FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW TO
THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM