Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS





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