Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS INCREASING TODAY. WILL BE AT WARNING CRITERIA SOON
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON SATELLITE
LOOPS. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SOUTH CENTRAL 1 TO 2 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST INTO MANITOBA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BAND OF H850
WINDS FROM 50 TO 65KT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PEAK WINDS WILL
BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE
FORECAST AT KISN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD
THUNDERSTORMS TO AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS SOME
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WORKS SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING IS A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVERTAKING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...WITH UPSTREAM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20KT TO 25KT. 997MB SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MANITOBA TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 50KT AND 60KT
COMMON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40
MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY
BE REALIZED IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSFER HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...A HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS HERE WILL FALL MORE IN LINE WITH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE FAR NORTH NEAR
CROSBY...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL CAPE AT BEST..THUS WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PER REGIONAL RADAR
WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGH A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF
AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. HAZARD
TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KTS KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 30KTS OR LESS AFTER 04Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ037-045>048-
050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035-036.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



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