Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1155 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Extended the Dense Fog Advisory south and cancelled far northeast.
Current trends have dry air advecting into northeastern North
Dakota. This is eroding fog across those areas. However, dense fog
is advecting further south late tonight. The HRRR has a good
handle on the current trends and indicates the fog will continue
to push south through the morning hours. Therefore, extended the
advisory further south to include I-94 between Bismarck and

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Dense fog has formed over many portions of northern North Dakota
so have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory. Latest HRRR
seems to have been working out pretty well on the timing of the
leading edge of the dense fog, though has not been doing as well
with the back side of the fog. Past and current runs have been
clearing out the backside, but satellite shows that fog over
southern Manitoba has been reluctant go to away. Anyways, will
keep advisory going through mid-morning Tuesday, and if clearing
does actually develop over the northeast later we can always trim
back on the advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

For early evening update have advanced timing a bit on the fog
setting in over northern locations as it has already pushed into
the Minot area. As for precipitation, convective showers over
central North Dakota appear to be on the decrease, so will let
chances diminish through the early evening. Next round of light
precipitation trying to push into northwestern parts of the area
at this time. A look at latest soundings still shows the
potential for a little snow/rain mix over the far northwest. Over
the far north central a little freezing rain/sleet will not be
out of the question, although chances for this remains quite low.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast challenges in the short term period will be stratus and
fog coverage tonight & tomorrow, along with precipitation

Currently, embedded mid level impulse moving easterly across
western and central North Dakota combining with weak instability
and an easterly upslope flow to result in a scattered showers
along a west to east orientated stationary front from eastern MT
through McKenzie-central Dunn-Mercer-southern McLean/Sheridan
counties. Expect this activity to linger through the
afternoon/early evening before dissipating. Stratus and areas of
fog remain over my north central and far northeast.

Another area of light precipitation will move across northwestern
and far north central ND tonight associated with another embedded
wave now moving into northeastern Montana. Otherwise the main
concern tonight will be stratus and fog. High res models have
persistently shown the low cigs/fog across the north developing
south with time tonight with the exception of the southwest on the
other side of the frontal zone. Also, dry air associated with
high pressure over northern/central Manitoba will eventually work
into the area tonight eroding the areas of fog over my
northeastern counties. Basically followed the HRRR guidance for
placement of stratus and fog which develops a northwest to
southeast orientated area from northwest ND to across the James
River Valley. Fog will likely linger into Tuesday morning.

Another mild day Tuesday with decent chances for rain over
southwestern ND. Mainly dry central and east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Mild/above normal temperatures will continue through the period.

Best chance for precipitation looks to be late Thursday night-
Friday-Friday night when a northern stream S/WV trough pushes
across the Northern Plains. Otherwise mainly dry conditions will


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in low cigs and fog are to
continue developing over many parts of northwest into central
North Dakota...impacting KMOT and KJMS. Remaining locations will
see areas of MVFR with localized IFR conditions. Southern
locations will see improvement to VFR by mid-day Tuesday, while
northern locations may improve to MVFR with localized IFR cigs.


Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Tuesday for



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