Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210514
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Quiet weather continues over the area. Only change for early
morning update was to increase cloud cover a bit along the
northern border in line with latest trends.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Quiet night expected across western and central ND. With the
evening update made some minor adjustments to sky cover with some
mid and high level clouds sliding southeast from Canada. Also
lowered temperatures in some areas. Otherwise no significant
updates needed. Updated text products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

High pressure will remain over the forecast area tonight.
Afternoon showers and a few rumbles of thunder have dissipated and
move southeast out of the forecast area. Have removed late
afternoon pops. For tonight, based on last nights temperatures and
looking at some of the forecast guidance, decided to lower
temperatures a few degrees most areas. Should be a relatively
clear and calm night across western and central ND. Otherwise no
significant updates needed. Updated text products will be out
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Surface high pressure over the central Dakotas this afternoon will
continue moving southeast tonight. This will allow winds to become
southeasterly later tonight over western ND, keeping temperatures
slightly higher in parts of the west. Looking for clearing skies
with overnight lows from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

A building upper level western ridge will expand eastward towards the
western plains on Sunday. South to southwest surface winds will
allow warm advection with dry and mild Pacific air to move into our
area. Looking at mainly clear skies with highs from the upper 70s in
the James Valley and Turtle Mountains to the mid and upper 80s in
the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

The upper level ridge continues to build and expand eastward across
the plains, keeping the warming trend going into Monday. High
temperatures should reach into the lower 90s across western and much
of central ND.

The models are consistent bringing an upper level low/trough over
southwestern Canada Monday, moving across southern Alberta into
southern Saskatchewan by Tuesday afternoon. An associated surface
cold front will move east across ND on Tuesday, with a secondary
surface cold front on Wednesday as the upper low continues eastward
into Ontario. This will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms
to western and central ND late Monday night and Tuesday, then again
mainly across northern ND on Wednesday.

Another upper level shortwave trough moves through the northwest
flow aloft on Saturday, bringing another chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our area Friday night and Saturday. A cool period
Wednesday through Saturday in the upper level northwest flow regime,
with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr with few/sct mid and high clouds.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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