Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
848 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Issued at 842 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Stratus remains across west and central North Dakota this morning.
Current thinking is the stratus will erode across portions of the
west but will persist most of central North Dakota through today.
Gradual clearing tonight but some uncertainty as low level
southeast flow develops. This will be an issue for aviation. Will
see what the latest short range guidance has to say later today.
Current forecast looks ok for now.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Previous forecast remains in good shape with little changes


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Forecast highlights/challenges in the short term period will be
cloud cover and continued chances for showers today.

Currently, S/WV trough over the Northern Plains with two embedded
impulses, one over southeastern ND and a secondary wave over
western ND. Associated showers with the western ND impulse persist
over central ND with subsidence drying things out far west. Most
shower activity previously over my southeast have moved east with
the wave but should see redevelopment this morning. Cloudy
conditions persist over all but my southwest. Low clouds (via
HRRR/NAM/RAP/GLAMP25) are still on track to develop over western
ND now through 14Z from north to south as the mid level cloud deck
moves slowly east. This already is occurring over southern
SK/northeastern MT with stratus building south-southeast
towards/into western ND.

BUFFER soundings along with diurnal cloud development procedures
(lapse rates/boundary layer moisture) all show a strong signal
for diurnal CU development today in the wake of the mid level
deck. Along with the CU, we will likely see diurnally driven
showers as well with several models indicating as such. Showers
may linger across the James River Valley into the early evening
until the nocturnal inversion forms and mid level forcing rotates
south. Daytime highs were tweaked to reflect the likely colder
temperatures central and east where cloudy conditions are
expected. Warmer west where we expect more sun along with
southerly return flow.

Dry conditions tonight with a ridge of surface high pressure over
the central and eastern Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Upper level ridging/high pressure will result in dry and mild
conditions Friday. Ridge breaks down Friday night into Saturday
bringing some precipitation chances to the region which continues
into Sunday. Vigorous S/WV trough moving into the Pacific
northwest Sat night will push east Sunday into Monday, resulting
in a very active/wet period Sunday night - Monday evening over the
Dakotas. Colder air is pulled south into the region so may see a
mix of rain/snow or all snow some places during the nighttime or
early morning hours. Active pattern continues through the work
week, though lots of uncertainty. Temperatures generally in the
50s and 60s with lows in the 30s to mid 40s through the weekend,
cooler for early to mid next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas of IFR with localized LIFR continue this morning over
western and portions of central North Dakota. Cigs will then
improve over most locations around mid-day to MVFR/VFR levels,
with most locations returning to VFR by this evening.




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