Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271734
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The forecast remains on track and blended to observed trends
through 17 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 756 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Quick update to expire the Frost Advisory on time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Temperatures this morning were running about 5 degrees above
expectations as of this writing. Despite that will keep the frost
advisory in place as Monday morning temperatures dipped just
before sunrise, and I`d expect that to happen again this morning.

Today will be sunny. The low that moved through the state over the
weekend has stalled over the Great Lakes and so the pressure
gradient today will support a 15 to 20 mph wind through and up to
50 miles west of the James River valley. That while the west has
5 to 15 mph winds.

For tonight, thermal profiles in the west are warmer supporting
lows no lower than the lower 40s. East of a line from Minot to
Bismarck mid to upper 30s are supported. Have included the risk of
frost again for tonight but with the uncertainty will not post any
advisory for it, yet.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Dry and mild daytime weather continues through the rest of the
work week, with moderating nighttime temperatures as well, lows
in the 40s. Thursday will be breezy as southeast winds develop
ahead of low pressure that will be developing in the lee of the
Rockies. The moisture increase and southwest diffluent flow aloft
will result in some showers and storms along the Montana border
Thursday night and Friday. That feature gets washed out as it
pushes into the mid level ridge over North Dakota. A more potent
system will follow with showers and storms across the area on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle. There is a slight chance low
level stratus across northwest Minnesota this afternoon may push
far enough west to impact KJMS late tonight into Wednesday morning.
However, this remains highly uncertain.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...AYD



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