Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Currently, sat pics indicate an upper level low over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, cool and dry high pressure was along
the Canadian and Montana Front Range, with gusty northwest winds of
20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph at times bringing cooler air
into the region. Temperatures this afternoon were in the 60s across
our area.

Tonight the upper low is forecast to dive southeast into the ND/MN
border by sunrise Saturday. An attendant cold front will accompany
the upper low and bring a reinforcement of cool, dry air to our
area. There is a hint of a possibility of isolated showers in the
Bottineau County/Turtle Mountain area tonight with the upper low and
cold front. We can expect northwest winds to decrease to about 10 to
15 mph tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid
40s...with some upper 30s possible, especially southwest.

Breezy Saturday (winds not quite as strong as Friday expected) with
highs from the mid 50s in the Turtle Mountains to near 70 far

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Continued northwesterly flow aloft Saturday night and Sunday as a
west coast ridge begins expanding and strengthening across the
Rockies. Ridging moves into the western Plains Monday. A gradual
warmup with highs Sunday from the upper 60s Turtle Mountains/James
Valley to the mid 70s southwest...then mid 70s east to mid 80s west
on Monday.

Tuesday through Friday: An upper level low over the Canadian Rockies
moves east and develops over Alberta/Saskatchewan by Thursday,
moving east slowly across south central Canada/northern tier of US
near ND and MN. This will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms
to our area. Global model differences in placement/timing indicate
lower confidence on determining when/where better chances of
beneficial rains might occur. The GFS model is more bullish on
precip for ND, and indicates a possibility for some strong to severe
storms Tuesday afternoon over central/eastern ND. The ECMWF however
indicates weaker CAPE/Shear parameters for this time. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday - in the 80s across all of western and
central ND...then a gradual cooling trend back into the mid 60s to
mid 70s by Friday in the vicinity of the slow-moving upper low over
the Canadian Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Friday afternoon a surface high pressure area remained in western
Montana with a trough of low pressure in Manitoba/Saskatchewan
approaching North Dakota. Gusty northwest winds 25 to 35kts will
persist through the afternoon hours Friday. The trough will be the
focus for widely scattered showers north central and eastern North
Dakota tonight. These should remain north and east of the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will return to KJMS Saturday after 12z. Otherwise
VFR at all TAF sites.




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