Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE ZERO
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
OFF BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY REBOUND INTO THE 20S BEFORE THE
FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AN OSCILLATING TEMPERATURE PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...WILL USE A BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF WARM UP INTO
THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A POTENTIAL RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR TO POTENTIALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF KISN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING AT KISN NOW AND EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO KJMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF MFVR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ









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