Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 310541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV


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