Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240215
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
915 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Current forecast trending ok. Winds have diminished and generally
shifted to the southwest. Just updated current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The majority of the area is currently in subsiding air within the
dry slot region across west and central North Dakota. The center
of mid level circulation appears to be near Swift Current
Saskatchewan with an abundant cumulus and strato-cumulus field
radiating out from the center. As this system moves southeast the
clouds and scattered showers will approach northern North Dakota
Wednesday. until then the evening will see mainly clear skies
except for the far northwest where a strato-cu field will
gradually move into the region. The winds will diminish and
become more westerly this evening then return tomorrow as a
gusty northwest wind. Current forecast trending ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cooler Wednesday highlights the short term forecast.

Western and central North Dakota will remain in the dry slot of
the low across southeast Saskatchewan through the evening and
much of the overnight. Wrap around moisture will increase through
the late night and Wednesday morning, generally in the form of
low stratus with precipitation chances generally restricted to
along and north of US Highway 2. Continued low level cold air
advection and cloud cover will limit highs to around 60 far
northwest to the mid 70s across the James River Valley. Given good
agreement, a consensus of the 12-15 UTC global and hi resolution
suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances Friday into Saturday and moderating
temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global and ensemble suites suggest a shortwave trough to
impact the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. While some timing
differences do remain, the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southern North Dakota. Low
amplitude, broad upper level ridging is forecast Sunday into early
next week, supporting a moderating trend back to near normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

At 6 pm CDT surface low pressure was centered near Winnipeg MB
with a mid level low centered near Swift Current SK. Vfr conditions
are expected through the 00Z TAF period KDIK-KBIS-KJMS. KISN-
KMOT will see MVFR ceilings develop after 18z Wednesday as
instability/clouds associated with the mid level low in
Saskatchewan moves into northern North Dakota.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA



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