Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270231

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
931 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Now that it is past sundown the stratus across the south central
is visually moving west in a low level east to northeast flow.
Satellite loops picking up this trend as well. There is some
clearing north central. Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Will expire the winter weather advisory with this forecast update.
The snow is dwindling and the CAM models agree in only a residual
amount the rest of the evening. Clouds will however persist with a
low level northeast flow maintaining clouds over the James river
valley and will likely spread clouds further west into south
central North Dakota through tonight. With this in mind felt the
minimum temperatures are a bit too pessimistic James River Valley
and raised them into the mid/upper 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Mid-afternoon radar mosaic shows the main axis of precipitation
extending from parts of western Minnesota into southeast North
Dakota and northeast South Dakota. Global and short term hi-
resolution models all generally agree the snow should gradually
diminish this afternoon, ending this evening. The Winter Weather
Advisory still looks good (expiring at 7 pm central time) with
brief visibility reductions possible and additional accumulations
of an inch or two.

A dry day is expected for Thursday with highs in the 40s to near

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The long term period will start off fairly quiet with the main
story becoming the chances of precipitation towards Sunday night
and Monday. Temperatures will start off a little on the cool side
of normal, but should return to near normal this weekend. For
Sunday night and Monday, one wave will pass to our south, while
another northern stream wave moves across the Northern Plains.
This will increase rain chances for Sunday night into Monday
across the forecast area. Thermal profiles generally support rain
through most of that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Low pressure over the Great Lakes region will maintain clouds
over eastern North Dakota tonight while high pressure will
gradually become dominant on Thursday.

Hazards to aviation tonight include MVFR ceilings KBIS-KJMS
through tonight. IFR ceilings KJMS after 08z. Conditions improving
to vfr KBIS-KJMS after 14-16z. Otherwise VFR KDIK-KISN-KMOT.




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