Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 142035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
235 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The forecast concerns for the short term include the diminishing
fog across the southeast, a brief period of gusty winds with a cold
frontal passage this evening, and the cooler temperatures Wednesday.

The dense fog advisory for the southern James River Valley has
been cancelled. The fog area will be permanently (for the short
term) swept away by a leading trough that will bring northwest
mixing winds this afternoon.

This will be followed by a more potent cold frontal passage this
evening, bringing colder temperatures and some gusty northwest
winds, and will, for the most part be a dry frontal passage with
just some slight chances for light snow north central this evening.

Wednesday will be 25 to 30 degrees colder than today with winds
gradually diminishing. Partly sunny highs teens north central to
the 30s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

For the first part of the extended we expect a roller coaster
temperature trend as several weak short waves track across the
International border. On Wednesday night a moderate to strong
pressure gradient sets up between high pressure in Ontario and
deepening low pressure in southwest Alberta. The deterministic
models all set up strong h850 southerly winds near 50kt Thursday
morning across the south central. However, sounding profiles suggest
surface winds more like 20 to 35 mph. Expect winds to shift to the
James River valley by afternoon, and could see some near advisory
criteria winds at that time.

Yet another cold front swings through Thursday night, with a more
potent one Friday night that will bring cooler temperatures
and gusty winds.

Saturday through Tuesday brings more uncertainty as models
become out of phase, with the European trending toward a REX Block
over the Central Plains and the GFS dominated by a cold Hudson
bay low. Either way, expect a strong temperatures difference
between southwest ND and northeast ND. Although early, do mot see
any significant storms on the horizon for the Thanksgiving Holiday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The main hazards to aviation include Very Low IFR at KJMS early
this afternoon in Dense Fog. Otherwise, a cold front will move
through the region this afternoon across the west and across all
of west and central North Dakota by early evening. The front will
usher in MVFR conditions KMOT-KJMS after 00Z and northwest winds
gusting to 26KT.




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