Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
111 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018


Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Expanded the dense fog advisory west a bit as the fog continues
to slowly expand westward, and as per the latest HRRR guidance.
Other updates were minor as the inherited forecast remains on

UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Expanded the Dense Fog Advisory into Emmons, Logan, McIntosh and
McLean counties based on GOES16 Advanced Nighttime Microphysics
RGB and webcam trends through 0342 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Based on current satellite trends, reports, and webcams through 01
Z, we expanded the Dense Fog Advisory westward. We will continue
to monitor trends for a possible expansion further west.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Current GOES-16 imagery and surface weather stations show areas
of patchy to dense fog persisting this evening along the James
Valley into north-central North Dakota. With the recent snowmelt,
cooler temperatures, and mixing remaining weak through tomorrow
morning, low level moisture continues to be sufficient enough to
support areas of fog and low stratus. A Dense Fog Advisory has
been issued for the northern James Valley and the Turtle Mountains through
noon CST tomorrow.

The 23 UTC iteration for the RAP and HRRR suggests areas of fog
will expand westward into central North Dakota towards US Highway
83 tonight. For these reasons, the Dense Fog Advisories may need
to expand westward later tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Low level moisture from snowmelt, lack of mixing and cooler
temperatures are leading to dense fog development along the James
Valley today. This fog is expected to persist and expand westward
later tonight. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for the northern James Valley through tomorrow morning.

Tonight, it appears the low stratus/fog will overspread areas
along, north and east of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River.
Short-term models continue to indicate stratus mainly across
eastern North Dakota and central North Dakota seeing decreasing
mid and high level clouds tonight with good radiational cooling.
Thus fog should develop on the west edge of the stratus tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The long term also appears quiet, for the most part. Models keep
the Tuesday clipper further north and east, leaving most of North
Dakota dry. There still appears to be a storm that will impact
portions of the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, but there is
a lot of uncertainty with respect to the track of the storm and
associated impacts. Temperatures over the next week should be
slightly above normal, except Thursday which may be well above
normal, ahead of the aforementioned storm system. Models have
backed off on the precipitation potential Friday into Saturday. A
model blend still brings some chance pops Friday into Saturday but
the trend is certainly drier.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Widespread low to very low IFR conditions continue from across
the James Valley and the Turtle Mountains to just east of KMOT but
does encompass the southern Missouri River Valley of south
central ND including KBIS. Fog and low stratus will continue to
expand west towards KMOT overnight. The fog and stratus will then
likely persist through Monday morning with conditions slowly
improving during the afternoon.


Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for



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