Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 111816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
116 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO FURTHER EXPAND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PART OF THE SAME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND JET
SUPPORT THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE THE BISMARCK OFFICE SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR PER SPC MESOANALYSIS IS MAINTAINING CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION AS IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST. HAVE NUDGED THE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AREA SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE

FOR TONIGHT...THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH IS OPPOSITE OF THE 12Z NAM
SOLUTION. THE LATEST CANADIAN GEM MAINTAINS PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL AWAIT THE ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES AND COLLABORATE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES BEFORE MAKING CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES INCREASING RAPIDLY FARTHER WEST.
PATCHY FOG MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES BUT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN AS EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA
ALSO WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 SHOW THESE SHOWERS WANING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 16Z-17Z. OVERALL
THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA NEAR
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET KEEP TRYING TO PUSH EAST...BUT
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE THEY APPROACH THE STATE LINE.
EXPECT A FEW WILL START TO HOLD TOGETHER SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
AND PUSH THE POPS EAST A LITTLE. PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA...BUT EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE STATE...NOW POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED A FEW
STRONGER STORMS NORTH CENTRAL...CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH. PAST HOUR HAVE SEEN WEAK ECHOS
DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHERN BURLEIGH COUNTIES. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS AND
ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z FOR THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFTER
12Z.

WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING THROUGH 15Z BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

FOR TODAY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK REALLY
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WEST...BUT DOES APPEAR
MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER
00Z. WHEN IT DOES...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ONE HALF...IF NOT SOUTHERN ONE THIRD...WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MY NORTH. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH WITH MODELS
INDICATING A STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE FAR SOUTH
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRAY STRONGER STORM OR
TWO...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

ON SATURDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LOW SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN SHORES OF
HUDSON BAY WHILE A FEW WAVES CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE FORECAST PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHERLY SLIDE TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. COOLER AIRMASS SWINGING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN PUSH COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TREND WITH THIS AS TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED EVEN FURTHER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
VARIETY OF WAVES WRAP THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW...PARTICULARLY FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
WHILE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR
AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KDIK. THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AT KDIK MAINLY AFTER 05Z SATURDAY. THIS MAY REACH KBIS AND HENCE A
VCSH IS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






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