Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 142052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Current surface analysis places low near Winnipeg, with cold front
stretching off to the west near the international border. Upper
level analysis places trough stretching from northern Manitoba
towards the Pacific northwest, with potent wave sliding across the
Canadian plains into the northern plains. Some light snow is
starting to work its way into the far northern portion of the
state. Ahead of the front, mild temperatures remain.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, cold front will
continue to settle to the south with snow gradually developing
from north to south. Initially, temperatures could be warm enough
for some rain to develop, but will switch over to snow. Models
continue to place the greatest amount of snow over northern
portions of the area, but have backed off a tad on snow amounts.
With that said, breezy winds could lead to some blowing snow. Much
colder airmass moves in behind the front.

On Thursday, snow comes to an end from north to south as surface
high settles into the area. Temperatures will remain quite cold as
high temperatures will be similar or not much higher than
overnight lows. Quiet and cold weather expected overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Surface high settles off to the southeast on Friday with warmer
air starting its return bringing a return to near seasonal
temperatures. Near normal temperatures remain into Saturday before
the next front slides through the area bringing snow chances.
Still some discrepancy remains in placement of snow for Saturday
night into Sunday as GFS focuses on the southern portion of the
state and ECMWF the northern.

Cold air then returns for the start of the week with single digit
highs on Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A strong cold front will slide from north to south 00Z Thursday
through 12z Thursday. At all terminals, expect light snow with
cigs/vsbys in the mvfr/ifr range as the cold front passes through.
Gusty northerly winds to 25kt will also result in blowing snow. The
light snow will taper off across the southern terminals 15z-18z
Thursday. Cigs/vsbys for all terminals will begin to improve
between 15z-18z Thursday, varying between mvfr/low vfr.




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