Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 121008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
508 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Large areas of showers and storms were moving through southwest
and south central North Dakota as of this writing with radar
estimated rain amounts generally 0.50 to 1.50 inches, and spots
with more than that. This with a short wave.

A mid level low was centered over northeast Montana and set to
track east / southeast over the forecast area today. Moisture,
lift, and instability are all present for showers and storms
through the day. The next well organized batch should fire off
around Beach at mid day and push east with the next wave around
the mid level low. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
however, severe weather parameters are "elevated" along the South
Dakota border counties south of Dickinson to south of Bismarck for
the afternoon, where shear is most supportive for rotating
storms. RE: SREF Calibrated Probabilities for severe
thunderstorms. Higher chances for severe weather are into western
South Dakota. Individual storms will also produce heavy rain,
possibly in the respect of rain gauge totals but moreso with
respect to rain intensity definition of heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For Sunday the H5 low is over the Red River Valley and pushing
into the land of 10,000 lakes. Cyclonic flow continues over the
eastern half of the forecast area and with that cool pool aloft
showers should be expected there. Weak ridging moves overhead for
Sunday night into Monday for a dry period. This before the next
wave over Alberta approaches for Monday afternoon. By Monday
afternoon a surface boundary through eastern Montana provides low
level lifting and a low level moisture return, while diffluent H5
flow into western North Dakota supports upward motion through the
mid levels for storm chances. Numerous waves pass through what
becomes southwest flow over the forecast area for storm chances
right through Tuesday night.

For the end of the long term, a cool pool aloft remains over the
area. No organized triggers are foreseen so any showers and
storms would be isolated in the heating of the day.

Temperatures in the 70s for highs into mid week then 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Scattered thunderstorms through the TAF valid period. The highest
chances are from KDIK through KBIS before 130000Z. After 130000Z
the highest chances are from KBIS through KJMS. Severe storms are
possible along the South Dakota border during the daylight hours
of Saturday.




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