Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over southern
Saskatchewan with inverted trough/frontal boundary stretching
through the northern plains. Upper level analysis places trough
stretching from the Canadian plains towards central Idaho.
Southwest flow remains over our area. Some light snow remains just
to the west of us over northeast Montana, while a secondary area
of snow is now pushing off over southern Manitoba. Some light
rain now starting to develop along/ahead of the boundary over the
southern James River Valley.

For today...precipitation chances will gradually diminish over the
north this morning. The focus then shifts towards south central
North Dakota into the James River Valley as the upper trough axis
swoops through the area, providing enhanced lift with rain
developing through the morning, continuing into the afternoon.
Rain will then taper from west to east later in the afternoon into
the early evening as trough slides off to the east and ridging
starts to build in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Broad scale ridging over the area will bring dry conditions to the
forecast through much of the week. Temperatures will warm to near
average on Sunday, climbing to above average for the remainder of
the week. By Friday, models are hinting at a deep Pacific trough
pushing onshore setting up southwest flow over our area, resulting
in low precipitation chances entering the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Lifr conditions will continue at KISN/KDIK through 16z, with ifr
cigs taking control at KDIK until 21z Saturday. KMOT will likely
have a period of ifr cigs through 18z Saturday, while KBIS should
remain vfr. Mvfr cigs expected at KJMS 18z-21z with -ra occurring
from 11z through 21z Saturday. Vfr cigs/vsbys expected after 21z at
all terminals.




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