Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Latest surface map shows a stationary front stretching from the
Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley then snaking back as
a cold front through the Great Lakes region into Ontario Canada.
Along the front per local radar, scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms continue to develop while moving south. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows Most Unstable Cape between 500-1000J/Kg along
the frontal boundary. Mid level lapse rates conditionally unstable
at 6.5C/km. Effective Shear is weak and is expected to remain
that way this afternoon per BUFKIT RAP soundings. Thus, pulse
type/ordinary showers/thunderstorms will be the mode of convection
through the afternoon/evening east of Highway 83. Additional
isolated showers/thunderstorms expected in southwest ND, in a
limited cape/moderate shear environment. No severe weather
anticipated in either location, which was addressed in the
previous discussions.

UPDATE Issued at 846 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Forecast for this morning and today remains on track. No major
deviations from previous thinking.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

No changes for today other than for observed trends this morning
through 11 UTC.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms today highlight the short term

The CAMs through the 07 UTC HRRR have been in good agreement on
scattered diurnal convective development outside of a narrow
corridor that is expected to be precipitation-free from around
Bowbells and Crosby, through Center, Bismarck, Fort Yates and
Linton. This zone is evident as a dry slot on water vapor imagery
this morning. Severe weather is not expected. Per verification,
did trend towards the lower edge of guidance for forecast relative
humidity southwest and towards the higher edge of guidance for
winds for most areas with efficient mixing expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Rather nominal weather highlights the extended forecast.

Northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains by the 00 UTC
global suites is forecast to transition to zonal by mid week,
before a continued transition to low amplitude troughing late in
the week. This favors a relative warm up back to near normal
values in the upper 70s and the lower 80s by Wednesday, before a
return to slightly below normal temperatures late in the week.
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast
through the period associated with low predictability waves
embedded in the fast flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

MVFR cigs with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
James River Valley and Turtle Mountains today, with a slight
chance southwest. Cigs elsewhere should remain mainly VFR.




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