Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201621

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1121 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Temperatures through 16 UTC have been outpacing the forecast
across much of western and central North Dakota ahead of the cold
front that was entering the far northwest. Thus, increased highs
into the upper 40s and lower 50s for much of the area south of US
Highway 2.

UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Very little change with this update other than to blend to
observed trends through 14 UTC as high pressure will continue to
build across the area today.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

For early morning update adjusted precipitation chances a bit to
account for some light activity trying to develop over
northwestern North Dakota in line with latest high-res guidance.
Otherwise, remainder of forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
precipitation this morning continuing into the afternoon.

Currently, zonal flow aloft with a frontal boundary stretched
from across southeastern Montana to across southern North Dakota.
Upper jet induced precipitation continues across much of
southwestern ND eastward into the south central coupled with fg
forcing along the boundary. Subsidence associated with a surface
high pressure ridge hindering much from reaching the ground
farther eastward into the James River Valley. Will maintain higher
POPs southwest through 12Z, tapering off to the east. Surface
temperatures have thus far maintained all rain via area
observations, along with web cam imagery also not indicating any
snow as of this writing. Would not be surprised that some areas
are receiving a mix though as temperatures aloft cool north to
south, especially over the higher terrain of the southwest as we
go forward in time through 12Z.

Right entrance region jet forcing persists today from western into
south central North Dakota. Mesoscale models develop an inverted
sfc trough axis over the west, washing out by this evening. Given
high res models are also showing QPF for today over these areas,
opted to increase/introduce POPs west & south central today with a
rain/snow mix this morning followed by all rain this afternoon.

High pressure continues to build southward into the Northern
Plains tonight bring CAA and clearing. Overnight lows Monday
night/Tuesday morning will reach the single digits above north to
the lower 20s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The extended period will be highlighted by a progressive flow

Upper level ridging forecast through mid-week moderating our
temperatures. Embedded S/WV cuts through the ridge Wednesday
bringing a chance for moisture to the region, otherwise the ridge
will bring dry weather conditions. Troughing redevelops late this
week resulting in another shot of colder air with best
precipitation chances across the southern half of the state and
the more significant precipitation well to our south. Another
ridge builds east across the area Friday-Sat followed by yet
another trough late this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

MVFR ceilings and visibility across southwest North Dakota this
morning will improve to VFR this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast across western and central North Dakota
for the 12 UTC TAF cycle.




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