Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221937

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Concerns for the short term focus on the chance for rain and the

The surface weather features in the short term include surface high
pressure across the Prairie provinces of Canada and a developing
low pressure area across the high plains of Montana and Wyoming.
This weather pattern will be favorable for strong upslope flow
across southwest North Dakota tonight and Friday. The GFS/NAM
soundings show a nearly saturated boundary layer which will favor
areas of fog in additions to showers. This is expected to begin
tonight and persist through much of Friday.

Looking aloft, the global models depict the upper low over northwest
Nevada Thursday afternoon and track this feature east then northeast
toward the northern plains on Friday. This low will be the focus for
showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region Friday into
the weekend. Most of the day Friday there is little if any CAPE
to support thunderstorms west so will limit the mention of
thunderstorms on friday to the central and east. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s and the highs Friday will be mid
50s to mid 60s. A moderate east to northeast wind of 15 to 30 mph
will prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Above average uncertainty continues in the extended picture.
Initially a negatively tilted h500 low lifts north through the
northern plains Friday night through Saturday. The global
deterministic models agree reasonable well in the track and
precipitation field associated with this low through Saturday.

By Sunday there is significant departure between the GFS and ECMWF
with the ECMFW much more progressive and the GFS reforming the
h500 low in eastern North Dakota and dumbelling it around
Minnesota. The result is the ECMWF is dry with a ridge over the
northwest and north central CONUS.

There is much uncertainty here in temperature and precipitation
early next week. For now have stuck with the superblend guidance
which gives scattered showers and highs in the 60s early in teh
weak moderating to the 70s by Thursday. If teh ECMWF is more
closer to the true solution warmer temperatures will be in the
offing. The GFS results in cooler temperatures next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

A few spotty rain showers will continue to develop over western
North Dakota this afternoon. Most confident with showers developing
over KISN within the next couple of hours. In general, VFR ceilings
and visibilities will prevail through most of the period, before
more numerous showers and lower ceilings approach from the west by
Friday morning. MVFR conditions should give way to IFR conditions at
all sites, with a window of LIFR ceilings possible at KDIK before
18z Friday. Some widespread fog will be likely in southwestern North
Dakota overnight, potentially reaching as far north as KDIK. Winds
will remain breezy from the northeast to east through the period.




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