Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Current surface analysis places trough stretching along the
eastern edge of the Rockies, while high settles through the
eastern plains into the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis places
modest ridge over the northern plains, with trough dipping through
the Rockies. Over our region, areas of fog have developed and
continue to spread through random portions of the area.

For today...areas of fog will continue through early morning,
diminishing late morning. Otherwise, a pleasant day is expected
with mild temperatures while modest upper ridge remains over the
region. Mainly quiet weather continues tonight, though a wave
passing to the north may allow some light showers to sneak into
northern portions of the area as it pushes upper level level high
to the south while a cold front approaches the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Aforementioned cold front settles into far northern portions of
the area on Saturday, then starts to back into northeastern
portions of the area overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will
bring cooler temperatures to these areas along with shower chances
along and north of the boundary. To the south, milder temperatures

Sunday night into Monday, an aggressive short wave trough
approaches the region while a surface low deepens near the Black
Hills and pushes easterly. This will bring increasing
precipitation chances to the area. Most precipitation that does
develop will be rain, but can not rule out some snow developing
over northern locations. Chances diminish Monday night.

Models then start to differ for the remainder of the week with
where to place the next upper low over the region. With that said,
will continue to places some precipiation chances in the forecast
given the generally unsettled pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Early morning fog and IFR conditions are possible at KJMS. VFR fog
is possible at KBIS/KDIK. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at
all sites.




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