Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 162359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
559 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover across the southern
James River Valley for this evening. Otherwise skies will be clear
as a dry warm advection pattern brings in low level southwesterly
flow. Current forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Highlights in the short term period include gusty westerly
winds and warmer temperatures. The gusty winds will allow for
snow to continuously drift across roadways. This, in conjunction
with melting and refreezing, may possibly result in icy roads and
hazardous travel late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
A Special Weather Statement was issued explaining and highlighting
the potential for hazardous travel. See for
details on the Special Weather Statement

Latest water vapor shows a narrow but sharp ridge from the
Northern Rockies into the Yukon Territories of Canada. Currently,
a deep northerly flow into North Dakota which will undergo a
significant transition toward a progressive quasi-zonal flow in
the next 24hr. Result, the atmospheric column will undergo warming,
replacing the very cold temperatures from the past several days.
Low level warm air advection has already initiated with southerly
winds/warm air advection. 3hr pressure falls of between 2mb and
3mb across western and central ND indicative of the warm air
advection and associated vertical motion. Upstream, a shortwave
trough now stretching from Vancouver into Washington/Oregon, will
gradually morph into a compact/closed upper low as it slides
across southern Canada tonight, and into southern Saskatchewan
Wednesday. The sharp ridge will flatten and be shunted eastward.
The operational GFS is the only model that generates light precipitation
amounts Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening north central
into the northern James River Valley. The Forecast Builder has maintained
dry conditions, and with all other guidance suggesting this, will
not deviate from current forecast.

Downsloping westerly winds will quickly evolve Wednesday morning,
and will become strongest across the northern ND, where sustained
between 20 and 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are expected in the
afternoon. This is in response to the aforementioned approaching
upper low and an associated weak cold front grazing far northern
ND late Wednesday. Elsewhere, expect wind in the 20mph to 30mph,
with weaker winds across south central ND, between 10 and 20 mph.
Highs Wednesday will rise into the mid 30s western/central ND,
with the cooler readings of around 32F in the James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A progressive pattern with above average high temperatures through
Friday, ie, 30s to lower 40`s. High temperatures gradually fall
back to more seasonal highs Saturday through Monday, ie, highs in
the 20s. Although no significant nor widespread precipitation is
expected, there will be two favored time periods for some mention
of precipitation. The first will be Thursday night through Friday
morning, as a wintry mix is possible west through north central;
the second timeframe is Monday when a clipper type cold frontal
passage produces a chance of snow slides through. Other than
these two timeframes mentioned above, dry conditions expected.

With melting at the surface and moistening of the boundary layer
Wednesday through Friday, BUFKIT fog analysis shows a turbulent
low level layer, which should inhibit widespread dense fog from
forming. Patchy fog possible but not expecting this to be in
long duration or widespread coverage.

A transitory ridge slides across western/central ND Wednesday
night through Thursday, resulting in continued warm air advection
and dry weather conditions. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s
central, with lower 40s west. As the transitory ridge shifts east
Thursday night, the upper level flow becomes southwesterly and is
maintained through Saturday. This will allow weak shortwaves
embedded within the southwest flow to impinge into western and
north central ND, mainly Thursday night through Friday. A weak
cold front associated with one shortwave Thursday night will
produce a light wintry mix along and just behind the front in
western ND. This area then pushes into north central ND Friday
morning. Southern ND should be far enough removed from any mention
of precipitation. Cold air advection commences Friday behind the
cold front, but occurs very gradually through Sunday. Thus, high
temperatures Friday through Sunday will exhibit a gradual cool-
down. That being said, expect widespread highs in the 30s Friday,
then mid 20s north to lower 30s south Saturday, and widespread
highs in the 20s Sunday and Monday. The coldest weather arrives
Tuesday behind the Alberta clipper, with highs in the single
digits to mid teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

This evening, arctic high pressure extended across southern
Minnesota. A lee side trough of low pressure across central
Montana is forecast to move through North Dakota Wednesday
morning. This will bring milder air and a wind shift to the
southwest after 10z then west after 18z. Gusty winds near 30KT
will generate scattered areas of 5sm BLSN Wednesday afternoon.




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