Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250919
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
319 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Blowing and drifting snow and Aviation concerns highlight the
short term forecast this morning.

Currently, low pressure was situated from Wisconsin northwest into
northern Minnesota and easter North Dakota. Aloft a broad
northwest flow was situated from the Canadian Rockies southeast
into the Great lakes region. A shortwave trough was propagating
southeast through western ND, within this upper level flow.
Stratus was located ahead of the wave from southwest into eastern
ND with scattered flurries moving through central ND. Partial
clearing was occurring over the northwest, with another area of
stratus over southeast Saskatchewan, poised to skirt the northern
tier counties. Needless to say, a busy aviation forecast, and
also headaches with temperatures as temperatures rise and fall
with as clouds move into/out out of the area. Expect clouds and
flurries to linger through the early morning, but overall, expect
a decrease in clouds from west to east, mid morning through the
afternoon.

Gradient winds are not overly impressive but we do see 0.5km winds
of 20 to 35 kts in the east this morning and moving into the west
this afternoon. Some areas, especially the James River Valley
have seen a good amount of snow the past few days. Even areas like
Bismarck which hasn`t seen much, has a little light snow
available to blow around. We think there is a possibility of
drifting snow today, across roads today and road surface
temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the 40s,
even though actual air temperatures remain in the mid 20s and
lower 30s. Thus we could see some slippery road conditions,
especially in areas that have seen more snow over the past few
days. We did bump up winds over guidance today to get a mention of
blowing and drifting snow, mainly over eastern portions of
central ND, and the far southwest.

Otherwise, quiet in the short term period with temperatures
dropping into the teens tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Quiet and seasonable conditions are expected through the work
week. Monday does not appear as windy as it did yesterday, but
think we may still see some breezy conditions with steep lapse
rates and 0.5k winds around 30 knots Monday afternoon as we
reside within the warm sector of a surface low pressure system
that tracks across southern Canada. With temperatures warming
above freezing over many areas we could see another day with any
drifting snow sticking to roads and re-freezing.

Otherwise very quiet Tuesday through Thursday. Deterministic
models are similar in bringing an upper low from the eastern
Pacific into the northern Rockies over the weekend but at this
time there are significant model differences in how this
eventually pans out as we move through next weekend. It certainly
looks like this will be an active timeframe over the northern and
central plains. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Decks of MVFR stratus are expected to impact much of western and
central ND overnight. Those ceilings will likely linger through
Sunday morning from the Turtle Mountain region south to KJMS.
However, confidence in the exact timing that the MVFR cloud decks
move in and out of individual terminals is moderate at best, so
some of the 06 UTC TAFs will likely require later amendments based
on observational trends. Regardless, we do expect VFR conditions
to prevail area-wide by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CJS



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