Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 272022
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KBIS-KDVL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT KBIS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KJMS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KISN KDIK AND KMOT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC AT KBIS AND
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH








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