Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 171346
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
846 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Made a quick update to blend in current conditions. Will continue
to evaluate the potential for a few strong storms this afternoon,
especially towards the southern James River Valley where SPC now
has a marginal risk for today.


UPDATE Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Quick update for observed trends through 10 UTC and CAM trends
through the 09 UTC HRRR. Elevated convection continues to slowly
increase across the west ahead of the deepening shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Numerous showers and thunderstorms today highlight the short term
forecast.

Relied heavily on CAM trends through the 06 UTC HRRR for shower
and thunderstorm coverage and mode for today. Expect
precipitation coverage to increase across southwest and into south
central North Dakota between 08-11 UTC as forcing increases as
the shortwave across Alberta as of 06 UTC propagates southeast and
deepens. Thereafter with diurnal destabilization, coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will increase. The focus will be along a
surface trough across the northwest, through the south central
and the James River Valley. While scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected north central, trends within the CAMs
are for chances to be lowest for this portion of the area. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected today with weak instability and
shear. However, the non-supercell tornado (NST) parameter is
locally elevated along the surface trough. Thus, would not be
surprised to see funnel clouds or even a weak landspout today.

Regarding winds, no changes to the Wind Advisory were made for the
southwest for today. Gusts of 35-40kts are possible following the
highest edge of the forecast guidance with strong gradient winds,
steep low level lapse rates and a modest pressure rise bubble
around 3mb/3hr. It should be noted that given the strong
 winds, locally strong gusts with any showers and thunderstorms
are possible with convective downdrafts southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Rather normal mid June conditions highlight the extended
forecast.

The 00 UTC global suites are in agreement on transition to zonal
upper level flow through the upcoming week. This would support
near normal temperatures in the mid 70s into the 80s with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with low
predictability waves embedded in the fast flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will increase across
west and south central North Dakota early this morning. With
daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase,
especially across the west and south central. MVFR/IFR conditions
are possible in showers and thunderstorms. Strong northwest winds
with gusts of 35-40 kts are forecast across the southwest on
Saturday, including KDIK. Pockets of MVFR stratus are possible
across the north central this morning, including KMOT. Stratus
may build across the area tonight, however this is somewhat
uncertain.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA



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