Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS  INDICATES LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA TO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDED OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN US PLAINS. A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILLISTON ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA TO EAST OF
BISMARCK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT 3 AM CST. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAY BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR THE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

DENSE FOG STILL EVIDENT AT WILLISTON...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED IN THE LAST HOUR AT OTHER PLACES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...SUCH AS TIOGA/STANLEY/CROSBY. BUT MINOT VISIBILITY IS ON
A DOWNWARD TREND. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL
6 AM AND THEN RE-EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND
WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIVER. TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM ISSUES...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG...
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A
MEAN TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WAVES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY ARE WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. HOWEVER...WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF EACH WAVE THERE IS A RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING / FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES CHANGING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR SUNDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW...CUTTING OFF OVER WISCONSIN...WILL BLOCK THE
FLOW PATTERN UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER
AIR TO SPILL IN FOR TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE
LOW TO THE EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...ALLOW A STEADY FLOW OF COLDER AIR INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...THAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
STILL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF DECEMBER...AROUND 20 DAYTIME AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW AT NIGHT. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...MAYBE A FEW TENTHS INCH OF
SNOW AT MOST EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO...LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT...IS IS PROVIDING
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLEAR
THE STRATUS AT KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AROUND 06 UTC. HOWEVER...WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN
IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS SHOULD CLEAR DURING
THE MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHICH COULD KEEP KMOT IN THE MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS THE TAF SITES...AND
THE THREAT OF PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS ENDED...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...TWH





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