Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1142 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

This update will cancel the winter storm warnings and winter
weather advisories for west and central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 914 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Visibilities continue to be reduced in light snow and some blowing
snow this morning. But trends are definitely improving. Will
continue the headlines at least through noon but believe will be
able to cancel all warnings and advisories by noon if trends

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Periods of snow continue over western and central North Dakota as
winter storm continues its gradual wind down. Areas of blowing
snow are still being reported so will leave headlines in tact for
now. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 430 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will continue to
focus on the ongoing winter storm.

Currently, stacked low pressure now over southeastern Minnesota.
TROWAL induced band of snow orientated from north to south across
central/portions of western North Dakota mainly between Highway 83
and Highway 85, and I suspect this is where it will remain based
on the TROWAL placement, though it still might meander a bit more
west this morning. With snow ongoing and still some gusty winds
about, will continue with our headlines as is with this forecast
issuance and let the day crew handle the expirations.

While low pressure remains quasi-stationary through today, the
secondary TROWAL starts to wane and begins moving out of the area
wrapping back southeast towards the low. Also, little if any PVA
after this morning. This decrease in forcing will see the areal
coverage and intensity of snow greatly diminishing with time after
12Z and especially this afternoon. In addition, gradient forcing
diminishes through the day and will result in our winds
continuing their weakening trend.

For tonight, dry air aloft advecting into northern and eastern
parts of North Dakota along with a continued saturated boundary
layer and subfreezing temperature profile looks to eliminate ice
nuclei introduction into the super-cooled water layer. Add in some
low level omega/lift and we have the necessary ingredients for
freezing drizzle. Right now kept this confined to my northern and
eastern counties, and will mention in the HWO and SFP.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 430 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Quasi-active weather pattern in place for the long term period,
with the main concern bitter arctic temperatures for early-mid
next week.

Two progressive S/WVs will bring chances for precipitation mainly
in the form of light snow next weekend. Otherwise the remainder of
the work week looks quiet with seasonable temperatures.

Later in the period both the ECMWF and GFS continue to advertise
much colder air surging south-southeast into the Northern Plains
after Monday, our first Arctic plunge of this winter if it holds.
Forecast blender now gives us highs in the teens for next Tuesday
and single digits above for Wednesday, with subzero morning lows.
Wind chills during the night and mornings are forecast as cold as
20 below. Given our deep snowpack now, temperatures may even be
colder than forecast, especially at night. Will continue to
monitor and message accordingly in our products.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Hazards to aviation include widespread MVFR conditions and patchy
freezing drizzle.

The large winter storm is exiting the region today but widespread
MVFR Ceilings and visibilities in light snow will remain across
the region through the 18Z TAF period. IFR possible at KJMS. Patchy
freezing drizzle will develop KMOT-KJMS tonight.




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