Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 121744
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Cold front has made it through most of central ND, and will move
past the James River Valley in the next couple of hours. Mainly
high level clouds across the forecast area, with some mid clouds
and possibly a few sprinkles over the northwest. Adjusted
temperatures down a little, especially in the northwest where
temperatures have been steady or even falling during the past
hour.


UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

No significant updates other than populating latest sensible
weather elements and interpolating to late morning values. Did
limit precip to sprinkles today across the north.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

For early morning update have increased cloud cover a bit to
address high clouds moving through the area. Otherwise, quiet
weather continues as a cold front slowly makes its way trough
western North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

A cold front will move through today. This will bring cool and
breezy northwest winds. Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s
across the James Valley as the front will not move through until
later this afternoon there. Further west, temperatures will be
cooler in the 50s.

Even though moisture is limited, there could be enough lift
associated with a passing wave across northwest North Dakota to
spark some light rain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Another wave moves across the state through the weekend, giving
us another shot of colder air. The coolest day will be on Saturday
when much of western and central North Dakota will struggle to
climb above the 40s. Lows on Sunday morning will fall into the
upper 20s and lower 30s across the area.

Regarding precipitation, the best chance appears to be Friday
night across northern North Dakota and Saturday across eastern
North Dakota. A mix of rain and snow will be possible across the
far north, but only minor accumulations of under an inch on grassy
surfaces are expected. Temperatures will rebound into the low to
mid 50s by Sunday. The warming trend will continue into the
beginning of the work week as upper level ridging builds across
the region.

The 8 to 14 day extended forecast is pointing to above normal
late October temperatures and below normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Maybe a
sprinkle at KISN and KMOT this afternoon, otherwise only high
level clouds. Gusty northwest winds today, diminishing this
evening, then remaining southwest to west through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



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