Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201521
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...

Issued at 918 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Radar returns continue to dissipate as high pressure builds east
across the local area. Continued the trend of ending all snowfall
across the James River Valley by 18Z. Biggest change from the
inherited forecast was to decrease sky cover rather significantly
with latest satellite imagery showing a mostly clear swath moving
into central ND. NB Sfc Cloud cover has this depicted well, also
showing a clearing trend west to east through the afternoon.
Looking at sat imagery across the region, this trend seems
reasonable.


UPDATE Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Radar returns are diminishing quickly over western ND. Expect this
trend to continue across central ND during the morning. However,
we did go with more of a high pop/low qpf forecast through the
morning along and east of the Hwy 83 corridor. Continuous light
snow at Bismarck office from 06-12Z with only a tenth of an inch
of accumulation. Expect similar results this morning over the
Turtle Mountains south through the James River Valley area before
snow ends by early afternoon.

Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Main forecast issues are ongoing light, widespread snow, including
winter weather advisory across the 4 southeast counties.
Observations continue to show light snow across much of the
region, with radar trends, including Bowman radar in the southwest
showing an overall decreasing trend. Web cams also do not show
much snow across the advisory area. Based on these trends and
model guidance, have cancelled the advisory. In general,
accumulations have been less than forecast including 0.4 inches of
snow at the office.

Slow moving, longwave upper level trough across the western US and
associated jet streaks moving across the Northern Plains in
southwest flow will slowly shift toward the Great Lakes region.
Expect to see clouds for much of the day with a gradual clearing
trend late, though clouds may hang on later across the north.
Arctic air remains in place as 1040mb surface high slides across
SD overnight. Lowest wind chill values overnight expected to range
from -25F to -30F most locations and as low as -35F across the
southwest. Per coordination with neighboring offices, will hold
off on wind chill advisory for now, given the other advisories
currently in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Models are in decent agreement with maintaining trough over the
western US through the remainder of the work, placing the Northern
Plains in southwest flow aloft. This will support moderating
temperatures and mostly dry weather. The current forecast has a
slight chance of snow over the far southeast on Thursday,
otherwise mainly dry weather is expected. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper teens to near 20 by Thursday and
Friday, to the upper 20s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Western locations (KISN and KDIK) have improved to VFR, while
light snow has continued at other locations with MVFR ceilings.
KJMS had also improved to VFR, although this may be shortlived as
another area of light snow moves through the region the next few
hours. Otherwise, continue to expect a gradual improvement from
west to east through the afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS



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