Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 090042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
642 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Issued at 633 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Surface low pressure continues to drop south through Minnesota.
Strong winds remain over central portions of eastern ND with maybe
some patchy blowing snow. Otherwise expect slowly diminishing
winds and clouds from west to east tonight. No significant changes
to the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A cold front tonight followed by a warm front for Saturday
highlights the short term forecast period.

Currently, a surface clipper low pressure center was at the border
of southeastern Manitoba/southwestern Ontario, with a cold front
extending southwestward across North Dakota into southeastern
Montana, and another secondary cold front extending
west/northwestward across Manitoba into northern Saskatchewan.
Northwest winds had increased this afternoon just along and behind
the first cold front, with noted wind gusts over 40 mph in the
Turtle Mountains and northern James Valley to the Minot area.

The clipper is forecast to track southeast across northeastern
Minnesota into Wisconsin this evening to the central Great Lakes by
daybreak Saturday. As the low moves southeast, another secondary
cold front will move northeast to southwest across North Dakota,
bringing some colder air and low clouds, keeping northwest winds at
around 10 to 15 mph for much of tonight. Overnight lows are expected
to range from around 10 above zero in the Turtle Mountains to around
20 in the far southwest.

Daytime Saturday should see the retreat of cold air to the east and
warm advection from the west as the large west coast ridge builds
back into the western Plains. We should see clearing from west to
east on Saturday with west winds of 10 to 20 mph, and high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the southwest to around 30
from the Turtle Mountains through the James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A potentially very mild Sunday, followed by a windy Sunday night and
Monday highlight the extended forecast.

A persistent Hudson Bay Low and upper level ridge over the west
coast will keep North Dakota in a northwesterly flow aloft through
the long term period. This will allow a few fast-moving clipper
systems to move through the Northern Plains, as well as keep a
temperature field pattern of coolest northeast ND to warmest in
southwest ND through next week.

Today`s global model runs remain in agreement on continued warm
advection from the expansion of the west coast ridge into the
western Plains. As noted on the mid shift, the 00z NAEFS 850mb mean
temperatures reach their 90-99th percentiles Sunday. Went with the
higher (warmer) temp guidance and highs in the low to mid 50s seem
reasonable for southwest and south central ND with 40s most other

Meanwhile another clipper system moves southeast out of Alberta
Sunday afternoon, and across north central and eastern North Dakota
Sunday night. Expecting northwest winds to increase Sunday evening
and remain strong and gusty through Monday evening. H850 winds
around 50 knots with strong cold advection with 3-hour pressure
rises of 5-8 mb will bring very strong winds. A wind advisory may be
needed for Sunday night through Monday. At this time it appears any
snowfall with this system will be on the north and east side of the
low track, which keeps western and central North Dakota on the drier
side of this system - the most precipitation appears in a track from
Manitoba through Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows an extensive band of MVFR
cloudiness dropping south from Manitoba into eastern ND and
Minnesota. The western extent of these clouds are expected to
impact Jamestown. 21-22 UTC mesoscale guidance was indicating MVFR
ceilings at KJMS beginning around 08 UTC. Satellite imagery
suggest at least scattered layers moving into the JMS area within
the next couple of hours, but could also be quite a few breaks
until around 08Z. Will need to monitor. Farther west, will
monitor KMOT and KBIS as some models indicate western fringes of
MVFR cloud cover extending as far west as these taf sites, but
most indicate them staying VFR. No issues at this time at KDIK and
KISN. Northwest flow diminishes tonight and becomes more westerly
Saturday morning, then turning back more northwest and increasing
Saturday afternoon.




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