Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
413 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Manitoba, with
secondary low over western Kansas. High pressure remains over the
northern plains in the wake of the cold front that passed through
the region yesterday. Upper level analysis places low over
Manitoba, while a trough pushes through the western CONUS.
Southwest flow remains over our area.

For today, aforementioned upper trough passes over the Rockies as
a lee side low develops and gradually deepens over southeast
Montana before dropping southward over eastern Wyoming tonight.
The day will be relatively quiet, but as the trough approaches,
forcing will be on the increase overnight, primarily over
northern areas. Precipitation that does develop should start out
as rain, but a transition towards some light snow will be possible
late evening, overnight spreading into the area from the north as
cooler air works into the system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

On Saturday, wave continues shifting towards the east with the
primary focus for precipitation shifting towards the central
portions of the state, tapering off towards the west. Snow chances
possible early with the aforementioned cool air in the system,
but should transition towards rain chances with warming
temperatures in the morning. With this all said, accumulations,
if any, should remain very light and melt by later in the day.
Most precipitation should be off to the east by evening, with some
possibly loitering over the James River Valley.

Ridge then builds in the start the upcoming week to bring warming
temperatures and dry conditions, which should remain through mid-


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

An increase in low/mid level clouds will initiate from west to east
this TAF period as a warm front slides through. Expect southeast to
southerly winds increasing to between 10kt and 15kt this afternoon.
Low level wind shear is forecast at KBIS/KJMS between 03z-06z




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