Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
339 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Precipitation chances late tonight through Thursday highlight the
short term forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites and the 19 UTC RAP are in agreement on a
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest CONUS deep trough to
propagate into the Northern Plains late tonight through Thursday.
Overall forcing is aided by jet coupling between a jet streak
across northeast Montana into southern Canada, and the jet across
Colorado and New Mexico in to the southern portions of the
Northern Plains. Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing
rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC
NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb
layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much
liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow
temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global models are in agreement on split flow across the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday transitioning to quasi-zonal
Sunday into Monday before an upper level ridge potentially builds
across the region by Tuesday. This overall favors above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s and sporadic, weak
precipitation events.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

MVFR stratus across central into northwest North Dakota this
afternoon will slowly clear from west to east through the late
afternoon and early evening. South-southeasterly winds with gusts of
25-35kts will be common across the area today. MVFR conditions in
stratus and light rain are expected to re-develop late Thursday
morning and into the afternoon as a weak storm system impacts the


Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

In response to increased releases from Alameda Reservoir, Lake
Darling will increase its releases to 1000 CFS by Thursday, with
the potential for further increases next week. This will cause the
Souris River downstream of Lake Darling near Foxholm to rise but
remain just below flood stage. As this pulse of water travels
further downstream where greater ice cover remains on the Souris
River, ice break up will have to be closely monitored.
Furthermore, snowmelt will be on the increase with a sustained
period of above normal temperatures late this week and through
next week. While soil moisture was high across the Souris Basin
going into the winter, early snow insulated the ground, preventing
much frost from forming. Thus, some uncertainty remains as to how
much melt from the snowpack will infiltrate into the ground
versus runoff and reach the river, streams and coulees.




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