Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 121500
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CONFINE POPS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY...PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AT 6 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR STANLEY ND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR FARGO. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY CLOUDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST TRENDS SHOW LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WAS BRINGING CLOUDS TO A STANLEY TO BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN LINE.
MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
THOUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS MORNING...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. WILL ADJUST CLOUDS TO FIT THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR TODAY...THEN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANOTHER IMPULSE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. WHILE MOST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF HIGHER INTENSITY RETURNS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE BOTTINEAU
COUNTY AND THE RUGBY AREA. ROLLA HAD BEEN REPORTING 1-2 MILES
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST BY NOON...THUS KEPT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS THERE IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BEGIN DURING MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS KEPT THE 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD FOR THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EVIDENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
STATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
COMING WEEK AS A LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW DEFINES THE H500 FLOW
REGIME OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE US AND CANADA.
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIMIT
MOISTURE AND LIFT GENERATING LITTLE PRECIPITATION. BUT BY
WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SPARKING LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS BEING A
BIT FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT THE
GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MODELS
TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE BUT IF THE ECMWF IS BELIEVED
THEN A BIT MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY RAIN AND SNOW
MIX WITH THE WARMER ECMWF IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOWER POPS OF THE ALLBLEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
THE HUDSON BAY LOW BECOMES LESS DOMINANT AND AN H500 BROAD RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BREAK IN
THE COLD PATTERN FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MORNING FOG/STRATUS IMPACTING KISN/KMOT/KJMS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LIFT INTO THE MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS...DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA





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