Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 021242

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
642 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 621 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Have kept patchy freezing drizzle going for the early morning
hours over the southwest and south central as some very light
freezing drizzle fell in Bismarck and webcam up by Garrison Dam
had a few spots on it. This should remain very light, though. Only
other change was to back off on fog over the central as it has
been reluctant to develop. Still kept some patchy fog over the
southwest in the higher terrain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Current surface analysis place low to the south of James Bay with
high over the west coast. Upper level analysis place low over
western Quebec/eastern Ontario with trough stretching from the
upper midwest towards the Great Basin. Cool and moist low levels
over our area has lead to persistant low cloud cover with some
spots of freezing drizzle, though this has tapered off over the
last few hours.

For today...weak wave moving through may bring some very light
snow to the southwest, otherwise quiet weather with persistant
cloud cover will remain. A little clearing may develop over the
southwest/south central overnight ahead an an approaching trough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Aforementioned trough quickly pushes through the area bringing low
snow chances for Saturday. Brief quiet spell returns during the
day on Sunday as region remains between disturbances. Our first
real shot of cold air for the season comes early next week as a
surface low deepens over the plains and lifts over
Manitoba/Ontario allowing an arctic airmass to pour into the
region. This will also bring a good chance for snow through the
area with modest isentropic lift to start followed by enhanced
broad scale lift from trough swinging around upper low to the
north. Frigid temperatures will linger through the work week with
many places seeing only single digits for high temperatures, and
overnight wind chill values of 15 below to 30 below zero.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Generally MVFR conditions are expected at all sites through the
morning hours. Occasional dips into IFR are possible, especially if
fog develops later tonight. Patchy freezing drizzle and snow
flurries are also possible tonight...mainly at KBIS.




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