Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 181458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND AVIATION. 11Z HRRR MODEL KEEPS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE CENTRAL A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS A BIT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON
CLEARING CLOUDS FOR AVIATION AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. CURRENTLY...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN TIER COUNTIES. ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW STRATUS. TEMPERATURES WERE FAIRLY
UNIFORM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LOWER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MINOT AND BISMARCK AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND
HANG ON OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER
KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 20-21 UTC.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AT 9 AM CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
LARGE STRATUS AREA IN LOW LEVEL COLD FLOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR AVIATION WILL BE HOW
FAST THE WARM AIR ERODES THE STRATUS TODAY. IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR
BY 17Z KBIS-KMOT...THEN VFR AFTER 19. IFR IN KJMS THROUGH
18Z...THEN LOW MVFR. VFR AFTER 23Z. VFR AT KISN-KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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