Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191720
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IS INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE. AT THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER
REGINA AT -3MB/3HR. THIS EXTENDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
1MB TO 2 MB PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. THIS INCREASED VERTICAL
MOTION AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS WERE OCCURRING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT WILL BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90F...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR HARVEY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE INDICATES RISING MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT/WARM AIR ADVECTION...FROM SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/89F AT DICKINSON WILL BE REACHED BY 21Z.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AREA HANDLED WELL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 40S BEING
REPORTED FROM TIOGA TO HAZEN. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FORECASTS WERE UPDATED VERY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WAS FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT THE ONLY REMAINING IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS A NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY PRESSURE FALLS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE
MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BRING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. LACKING IS ANY
MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAVE. WITH THAT...HAVE KEPT THE LOW POPS...20
PERCENT OR LOWER...THAT WAS ONGOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY IT WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING
WINDS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 MPH. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES OUT OF MONTANA AND INTERCEPTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS ADDS WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND JUSTIFIES LOW POPS
...AGAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS...FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA.

WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
NEARLY 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...EXPECT EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

DEVELOPMENT OF THE TYPICAL JULY FOUR CORNERS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK AS MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS
FASTER...WEDNESDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION WOULD ARRIVE SOONER THAN
PREDICTED...AND VICE VERSA. SIMILAR IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED...BUT ARE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

THE BOTTOM LINE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HAVE ADDED A VCTS FOR KDIK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED A VCTS AT KJMS SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHICH ARE COINCIDENT WITH THE KDIK/KJMS TERMINALS AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS






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