Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1149 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Latest visible imagery shows an area of low clouds hovering over
western ND with the exception of the southwest where clear
conditions exist. Adjusted sky grids to reflect this and also
added in more sunshine for most of central ND this afternoon. That
being said, high clouds were beginning to approach the northern
and western border per IR imagery. Per GFS, this is forecast to
increase across the west this afternoon and into portions of west
central ND later this afternoon and evening. Have delayed pops
into the northwest until 03z-06z Saturday based off of the latest
NAM/GFS. Rest of forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 846 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A mix of sun and clouds continue this morning over the area. With
that said, still expect cloud cover to be on the increase as the
day moves on as clouds gradually shift in from the west. Other
than adjusting cloud cover a bit, going forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Current forecast looks good and see no necessary changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Just a few concerns in the short term. A patch of clouds and
flurries are moving south with the leading wedge of cool air from
surface high pressure in Canada into north central North Dakota
this morning. Because of the insulating effect of the cloud cover
the temperatures are rising across the north and central. Clear
skies across the south are allowing temperatures to cool into the
single digits so quite a range in temperatures this morning.

This afternoon the clouds will move slowly south and the short
range models show little in the way of precipitation. Cloudy skies
will end up of across the south and west by this evening.

Highs today will be in the 20s to around 30 and lows tonight
single digits to the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The focus in the long term will be the chance for accumulating
snow Monday night and Tuesday. This precipitation is associated
with an open and progressive wave moving across the central
CONUS. The GEFS plumes with the 00Z model runs have backed off a
bit on the precipitation potential and agree with this. Current
snow amounts look more in the one to three inch range across
central and southeast North Dakota from this event.

Otherwise it will be generally dry except for some small chances
for light snow Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures look fairly
consistent through the period with highs in the 20s to around 30
and lows from the single digits to the teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Mvfr cigs expected at KDIK through the forecast period. Otherwise
vfr conditions at all terminals until 10z, with cigs deteriorating
thereafter at all terminals except KJMS. Expect mvfr/ifr cigs at
KISN beginning 10z Saturday; mvfr cigs into KMOT by 13z Saturday;
and at KBIS by 16z Saturday.




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