Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191726
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1226 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Latest suite of satellite imagery continues to push thicker
mid/high clouds to near/along our southern border as a potent
upper low is centered over central Colorado. Multiple shortwaves
noted downstream into South Dakota continue to rotate north per
RAP13, but little if any precipitation able to develop with a
fairly dry column in place, especially below 15kft. Minor
adjustments to increase hourly/high temperatures portions of
southwest and south central ND by a couple degrees based on
latest observations. Otherwise the current forecast remains on
track.

Looking ahead, current thinking of a frost advisory across the
west and portions of central ND tonight into Saturday morning
remains on track, with a possible freeze warning in the far
southwest. Will look more into this for the afternoon forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 844 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Frost advisory expires at 9 am so will cancel with this update.
Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

High pressure remains situated over north central ND with dry
north to northeast flow which continues to erode the leading edge
of precipitation as it tries to push across the border from South
Dakota. Across the north and portions of the west temperatures
were in the upper 20s and lower 30s. A Frost Advisory remains in
effect through 9 AM this morning. No significant changes other
than populating latest sensible weather observations. Updated text
products will be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Cool temperatures and frost potential highlights the short term
period.

Blocking upper level high pressure ridge remains over the northern
plains today and tonight, finally getting shunted eastward as
strong upper low over the intermountain west ejects into the
central plains Friday night.

Currently, high pressure is situated over northern North Dakota
into Manitoba. Dry northeast flow continues over the area which
continues to keep precipitation well south of the South Dakota
border. Temperatures are mainly in the 30s. Even though cirrus
continues to thicken across the south, with the dry lower
atmosphere, we are still in the 30s or lower 40s along the SD
border.

The main forecast issue today and tonight will be temperatures.
With more sun across the north, highs will be warmer from
Williston to Minot and Bottineau. Probably not as much sun as
Thursday but 85H temperatures are a little warmer, thus bumped
them up a couple of degrees warmer today, with highs in the lower
60s. In the south, most MOS based guidance is also similar to or
a little warmer than yesterday. However, we do expect considerable
cloudiness. Thus we stayed a little on the conservative side,
slightly below MOS guidance. As for precipitation, global and
short term models bring some higher reflectivities near the border
today, but for the most part any accumulating precipitation
remains south of the border. Could see a few sprinkles or brief
shower along the border, but kept the mention of precip out of the
forecast today.

As the strong upper low reaches the plains and begins to lift
north and east, our precipitation chances should begin to
increase over the south central into eastern ND. Models have
trended slower with the precipitation and we have kept things dry
until after midnight tonight.

Temperatures tonight will also be a concern, as we once again drop
into the lower to middle 30s across portions of western and
central ND. Although not as widespread, we will likely need
another advisory for the potential for frost late tonight into
Saturday morning. Most likely areas would appear to be along and
west of the Highway 83 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Deterministic models are fairly consistent with the location of
the upper low by 00 UTC Sunday (far southeast SD) but differ in
the amount of moisture that is able to make it into the forecast
area. The NAM/EC are wetter over south central into eastern ND
Saturday and Saturday night, while the GFS/GEM brush the far
southeast portion of the CWA with light precipitation during this
same period. For now will utilize the model blend which keeps a
chance of precipitation mainly east of a line from Linton to
Carrington Saturday and Saturday night, with likely precipitation
chances over the southern James River Valley.

The upper low lingers over the Upper Great Lakes and Southeast
Canada region through the weekend, while upper level ridging
takes place over the western U.S. Thus a cool and unsettled
pattern continues over the northern plains through the weekend and
into early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in
the upper 30s and 40s. Upper level ridging tries to nudge into the
central portion of the country by mid to late week bringing
slightly warmer temperatures with readings climbing into the 70s.
With the general northwest flow continuing next week, no major
storm systems appear on the horizon, but periodic chances of
showers or thunderstorms seem reasonable as impulses traverse the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

High pressure extending across the Canadian Prairie Provinces into
North Dakota will maintain VFR conditions through Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA


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