Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 302124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
324 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Concerns for the short term period include ending the residual
snow followed by some patchy freezing drizzle.

Radar trends confirm areas of light snow continue across western
and central North Dakota this afternoon. CAM models as well as the
NAM/GFS hold on to light precipitation within the remnants of
the trowel across the area tonight. Bufkit soundings show
decreasing chances for seeder/feeder ice crystals across northern
and eastern sections of North Dakota. Will keep some freezing
drizzle north and east as a result.

On Thursday expect a slight chance of light snow across the west
in a weak baroclinic zone where weak warm advection is seen.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The highlights in the long term include an arctic intrusion early
next week bringing the coldest air of the season with some
accumulating snow.

As the persistent upper low continues its slow migration out of
the northern plains Thursday night a weak split flow becomes
established aloft. Models portray an upper low meandering through
this area that could support clouds and some slight chances for
snow thursday night. While friday looks quiet things begin to
change Saturday with a stronger shortwave moving onto the Pacific
northwest. This system become positively tilted and digs much
further south into the four corners area by Tuesday. This flow
will provide several opportunities for light snow chances in the
Monday-Tuesday period. Some accumulating snow looks reasonable
with the GEFS plumes still not providing enough certainty on
amounts. But following this cold arctic air will make its first
appearance of the season. This will feature below zero minimum
temperatures with highs possibly barely above zero Tuesday night
through Thursday. Wind chills during this period will likely fall
below 15 below zero for many locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Hazards to aviation include widespread MVFR conditions and patchy
freezing drizzle.

The large winter storm is exiting the region today but widespread
MVFR Ceilings and visibilities in light snow will remain across
the region through the 18Z TAF period. IFR possible at KJMS. Patchy
freezing drizzle will develop KMOT-KJMS tonight.




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