Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 110707
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
107 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 107 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

A quick update to extend the wind chill advisory through Wednesday
night. After interrogating the latest apparent temperatures, it
seemed appropriate to send the message of dangerous wind chills
continuing beyond Wednesday afternoon. And with the strongest
surge of arctic air arriving Thursday through Friday morning, have
mentioned within the wind chill advisory headline that dangerous
to life threatening wind chills will continue during this period
as well. Updates to text products forthcoming.

UPDATE Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave currently stretching
from southeast Saskatchewan into northwest North Dakota. This
shortwave is forecast to move east into the Turtle Mountains by
12z Tuesday. Also, a 140kt jet streak was located along the
southern border, and per 00z GFS, this will shift into the James
River Valley by 12z Wednesday. Strongest synoptic scale forcing
occurring now through 08z, being shunted farther south thereafter
and south of the border by 12z Wednesday. The local/regional
radar and surface observations continue to show light snow over
central and southern ND. Expect around one inch for most areas
then waning 08z-12z from north to south. Current forecast and wind
chill advisory on track for the overnight period.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Widespread area of light snow extends across from north central
through southwest ND. Leading edge is moving into Bismarck at this
time. This band of snow is ahead of a shortwave from southeast
saskatchewan into north central MT. As this shortwave tracks
eastward tonight, it will force this area of snow south with most
if not all of the snow pushing out of the far southern counties
around 12 UTC. The snow has already exited the far northwest, but
the rest of the forecast area could see a half inch to an inch of
new snow tonight, with a few areas seeing a little over an inch of
fluffy snow. Winds are not expected to be strong like last night
but expect there will be some drifting of snow along the roadways.

Adjusted pops quite a bit higher late this evening through the
early overnight hours with pops tapering pretty quickly from north
to south late tonight. Temperatures have remained pretty steady,
or even risen a couple of degrees this evening with the extensive
cloud cover. However, temperatures will plummet rapidly as we
clear from north to south late tonight. With winds in the 8 to 16
mph range, we still expect widespread wind chills of 25 to 35
below zero across the forecast area late tonight and into
Wednesday. Therefore, no changes to the current wind chill
advisory. Depending on how far the temperature drops and if the
winds hold up, we could be flirting with wind chill warning
criteria for a few hours Wednesday morning across the far northern
tier counties. Overnight will monitor but not certain enough at
this time for a Warning.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Current forecast looks to be on track. Clear skies over the Turtle
Mountains to James River Valley with clouds quickly approaching
from the west. Light snow currently at Williston. Expect light
snow to spread east and sink south through the night as frigid
arctic high pressure builds from the north. Made some minor
adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover and populated latest sensible
weather elements. No changes to current Wind Chill Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Dangerous wind chills tonight highlight the short term forecast.

Arctic high pressure will continue to build across western and
central North Dakota tonight into Wednesday. Dangerous wind chills
to 35 below are favored across all of the area by tonight,
continuing through Wednesday. Widespread light snow is forecast
tonight across much of the area in association with a strong
160kt upper level jet streak. Given good agreement, a blend of the
12-17 UTC global and high resolution suites were favored.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A high impact arctic surge Wednesday night through Friday followed
by a possible warm up early next week highlight the extended
forecast.

A strong arctic surge is forecast Wednesday night into Thursday
by the 12 UTC global suite. Life threatening wind chills near -50
are possible by Thursday night into Friday. Furthermore, the low
level wind field highlighted by potentially strong isallobaric
forcing continues to show signs of being stronger compared to
model runs yesterday. Thus, the concern for blowing snow impacts
continues to grow and this will have to be closely monitored for
Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter, potential split upper
level flow next week supports a possible recovery to near to above
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Light snow and low vfr to mvfr cigs favor KDIK/KBIS/KJMS until
around 10z Wednesday. Thereafter, vfr cigs/vsbys expected for the
remainder of the taf period. Near the end of the taf period, a
strong alberta clipper will approach the northwestern terminals of
KISN/KMOT with increasing southwest to westerly winds ahead of the
arctic front.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
AVIATION...KS



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