Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 152043
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
243 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Very mild temperatures through Thursday highlight the short term
forecast.

Temperatures though 20 UTC have under-performed with the impacts
of snow cover apparent. However, an increasing amount of stations
across southwest North Dakota are climbing into the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Thus, did use the observed temperature pattern today
to adjust the high temperature forecast for Thursday and lower it
a bit from the previous forecast. As of now, it appears
temperatures may fall short of records, yet still be very mild for
mid February with the 00 UTC NAEFS 850mb mean temperatures near
the max of their climatology. However, it appears that not enough
bare ground has appeared to realize the full heating potential for
Thursday.

Location....Thu Record...Thu Forecast

Dickinson...59 1981.......55
Williston...54 1981.......52
Bismarck....57 1981.......50
Minot.......51 1913.......50
Jamestown...52 1981.......45

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Continued above normal temperatures highlight the extended
forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on continued above
normal temperatures throughout the forecast period. However,
a relative cool down is expected Friday and Saturday as the
upper level ridge propagates east. However, widespread highs the
30s and 40s are still expected as the 00 UTC NAEFS 850 mb mean
temperatures hover around their 90th percentiles. The potential
for highs in the 50s returns on Sunday across southern North
Dakota in the warm sector of a surface low that will rapidly
propagate across the Northern Plains. Precipitation chances with
this system have largely shifted to be potentially focused across
Minnesota compared to further west with previous runs. Thereafter,
zonal upper level flow is favored through mid week along with
above normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No significant runoff has yet to be observed on river and stream
gages across southwest North Dakota other than minor, diurnal
rises and falls with a daily pattern of above freezing daytime
temperatures and subfreezing overnights. The majority of melt
water for now has infiltrated into unfrozen soils or is still
making pathways through the snowpack. As warm temperatures
persist, pathways will open for meltwater to reach streams and
rivers, and levels will rise.

Overall, this early melt should be beneficial with helping
remove excess moisture from river basins in the southern and
western parts of North Dakota. Watersheds including the Knife,
Heart, and Cannonball Rivers should be on the watch for rising
water levels and an increased risk of ice related high water near
the end of the week. To a lesser extent, the Apple and Beaver
Creek basins may also see the onset of runoff this week as their
robust snowpack proves more resilient.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA



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