Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUD-FREE...BUT SEVERAL ASOS OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SENSE A SMOKE LAYER AS A CLOUD LAYER. ADDED MENTION OF
SMOKE TO ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SKIES ARE BASICALLY CLEAR WITH SOME
ASOS`S SENSING THE SMOKE LAYER AS A CLOUD LAYER. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION GENERALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND TAKING ION A MORE STEADY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IN SOME THE OF CELLS FROM THE WARM RAIN PROCESS THAT
HAS BEEN PREVALENT TODAY. WIDESPREAD SMOKE AGAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2 TO 4 MILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED
SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS TODAY IS ON THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS SUPPORTED
BY 12 UTC WRF HIRES ARW/NMM AND THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF THE
HRRR...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN US 83 AND THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS PUSHED WELL
OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM MODE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...BUT REPORTS
THUS FAR HAVE NOT INDICATED ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING.

BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE INDICATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA) IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE THE NAM/CANADIAN KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS
ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD PERCEPTION ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A RAINY 4TH OF JULY EVENING APPEAR TO BE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT WERE TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLIER LIKE THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING...PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEARBY AROUND FIREWORKS TIME. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE UTILIZED
A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD SPARK AN
ISOLATED STORM.

AFTER A RAINY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS/ECMWF ARE HINTING AT 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND
AROUND 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. BISMARCK...MINOT...AND NOW JAMESTOWN ASOS SENSING THE SMOKE
LAYER AS A CLOUD LAYER. MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THE SMOKE
REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z.
VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
KEEP SMOKE AWAY FROM THE SURFACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV


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