Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170111
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING NORTH AND EAST. WILL CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. STILL PRETTY GUSTY SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE THERE BUT WILL RE EVALUATE AT
9 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING/FILLING IN OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATED. THESE SNOW SQUALLS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE
LED TO BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GREATEST
THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED FROM HIGH WINDS TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...WENT AHEAD AND REPLACED THE WIND ADVISORY
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE LATEST
NMM/ARW/NAM12 PROG THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER/I-94 BY 03Z. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW NORTH IN EFFECT UNTIL
03Z...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORY.

AS THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF SOUTH TONIGHT...THE
BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SOUTH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT WERE CANCELLED EARLIER THAN THAT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAKER WINDS...DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REACH THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

A POTENTIAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM
ALBERTA AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WARMING AHEAD OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. LOOKING
AT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO...BUT WARMING TO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S AS THE COLD FRONT MIXES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDED
A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
STRONGEST.

THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING
THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BEGINS MOVING EAST...AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING. THIS WILL BRING MOVING SYSTEMS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH GUST
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z. VFR EXPECTED KISN- KMOT-
KBIS- KJMS AFTER 7 PM...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO KBIS-KJMS. KDIK WILL SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z TO VFR. MVFR CLOUDS LIKELY TO
RETURN FROM MONTANA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ031>034-040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA






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