Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a southwest flow aloft with
multiple shortwaves embedded upstream. The RAP/NAM/GFS show an
850mb baroclinic zone situated over central ND as of 06Z/12AM
Sunday, which shifts into north central by 12Z/6AM Sunday. A
shortwave now in northeast Wyoming is forecast to reach southwest
ND by 12z Sunday. This will induce ascent near/atop the
baroclinic zone as depicted by the NAM/GFS Q-Vector Divergence
Field, moving from southwest ND at 06z into north central ND by
12z. The HRRR/GFS continue to develop light precipitation between
12z and 18z, focusing it mainly between Sherwood and Rolla. The
NAM/RAP remain dry. Will lean towards the HRRR/GFS which is in
line with the current POP Grids Sunday morning. Will continue to
monitor for fog/stratus as mentioned in the previous discussions.
Thinking is if does develop, it will occur along the baroclinic
zone in north central ND toward 12z Sunday.

UPDATE Issued at 946 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

No changes with the update, only blended most recent obs into the
forecast. High res models (HRRR and RAP) continue to have problems
with low moisture. They suggest low cigs and visibility across the
James River Valley at this time, but not seeing any of that yet
per obs and webcams.

UPDATE Issued at 653 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Added some low pops for early evening north-central, based on
light rain report at Minot. Otherwise, have not seen much
indication of anything reaching the ground. High res models push
any light precip quickly north during the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 435 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Updated to match current temps across the southwest which are
running warmer than forecast. Latest Hettinger observation came in
at 56 degrees. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

A surface trough is developing across eastern Montana today. This
is leading to warm air and moisture advection across most of
North Dakota. Early tomorrow morning a weak, fast moving upper
level wave will swing through North Dakota. This may spark some
light rain/freezing rain across far north central North Dakota in
the morning. As the main upper level trough moves into the plains
Sunday night more widespread rain is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper level and surface trough
will swing through the Dakotas rather quickly. A winter mix is
possible across northern North Dakota Monday morning with rain
showers likely elsewhere. A chance of thunderstorms in the
southern James River Valley is also possible with this potent
shortwave trough. SPC Day 3 has south central ND and the James
River Valley in a General Thunderstorm Outlook.

Another wave will move through northern North Dakota Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

There is another impressive shortwave Thursday and Friday, but
trends continue to favor a southerly track and keep North Dakota


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Mainly VFR BKN cigs are expected through the period. A band of mid
level clouds at around 10-12K AGL will lift north across the
region this morning. Models are trying to generate low level
clouds as well but thus far this appears to be over-forecast so
will leave out MVFR-IFR cigs for now and monitor. Some patchy fog
will also be possible this morning.




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