Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
335 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Focus in the short term is fog and low stratus cloud formation this
morning. Attention then turns to the potential strength of the
southeast winds.

Currently...surface high pressure was over the Red River Valley,
centered over the border of ND/MN. Temperatures had dropped into the
mid 20s/lower 30s there with light winds, and fog had begun to form
over parts of the eastern third of ND, including the Devils Lake
Basin and James Valley. The latest iterations of the short term high
res HRRR model seems to have a good handle on the current area of fog
formation, suggesting that the area along and east of the Coteau is
most at risk for dense fog. This model also suggests the fog will
linger into the later morning hours. After collaborating with Grand
Forks and Aberdeen NWS offices, and noting that web cams not yet
indicating any widespread fog, decided that we will mention patchy
fog north central, and patchy dense fog from the James Valley to the
Devils Lake Basin counties. Should dense fog develop, we can issue a
short term Special Weather Statement to address more widespread low

Meanwhile, at upper levels a strong ridge was established over the
Rockies. This upper level ridge axis is forecast to move east into
the Dakotas tonight. Broad surface low pressure over the Rockies,
and high pressure moving east today will allow southeast winds to
develop. A strong low level h925/h850 jet is forecast to develop
from the southern Plains northward into Saskatchewan by this
afternoon. Expecting southeast winds to be a bit stronger than the
model blends, and raised wind speeds to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
25 mph - beginning late this morning and continuing through the
afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicate that the low level jet remains
strong tonight and possibly continues to mix out at the surface at
times, but noted that a low level inversion develops and may keep
the higher winds aloft from mixing. Confidence is not high enough to
keep those higher wind speeds mentioned tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Focus in the long term is on the chances for rain Tuesday into

The upper level ridge over the Dakotas Monday night begins to
flatten out as it moves east. Southwest flow aloft becomes
established over the Rockies with a large-scale upper level low off
the west coast. A shortwave emerging from the 4-corners area moves
northeast through the flow Monday night and reaches the Dakotas
Tuesday morning. This wave will bring an increase of mid level
moisture, and lifting associated with the established low level jet
will result in rain showers over central and eastern ND. At this
time it appears that the James Valley and into eastern ND are poised
to receive the bulk of the rainfall...with the possibility of
anywhere from 0.10 to 0.50 inches of rain.

Another shortwave emerging from the west coast system emerges from
the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and reaches southern Saskatchewan
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Today`s model runs suggest that
showers from this wave will remain north of the Canadian border on

The western ridge builds back over the Rockies Thursday, with yet
another series of shortwave breaking down the ridge. Models are not
in good agreement regarding the timing and track of these
shortwaves. Model consensus suggests keeping any mention of
precipitation out of the forecast for the end of this week, with
only slight chance mentions on Saturday.

Continued mild with highs in the 50s and 60s this week. A cooler
weekend ahead with highs in the 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Corrected discussion.

Patchy fog is possible across much of western and central North
Dakota this morning, but especially from the Turtle Mountains
through the James Valley, affecting the KJMS terminal. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast for the 06 UTC TAF cycle.
Southeasterly winds with gusts of 20-25 kts are expected late this
morning and afternoon.




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