Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220343
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Lowered min temps for tonight across the west, where temps have
dropped under clear skies. Satellite fog product (11 - 3.9)
continues to show low deck sagging southward, just reaching
Watford City at 03Z with ceiling broken at 800 feet. High res
models (HRRR and RAP) continue to bring these low clouds
southward, eventually across the southwest part of the state
tomorrow morning. Models also continue to indicate very slowly
improving ceilings central and east through Sunday. With regard
to fog, still not seeing any significant reductions in visibility.
A few locations across the northwest, such as Crosby were around
a mile for visibility, otherwise generally 5+ miles. Webcams also
support this with most locations not showing any large reductions
in visibility.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted sky cover across
west central and southwest ND based on latest obs and satellite
imagery which indicated more clearing than depicted in the
forecast. Otherwise, blended the forecast to latest obs, with a
few locations also running slightly colder than forecast. Main
issues tonight remain low clouds and fog potential. Currently the
lowest visibility reported was 2.5 miles at Crosby, 3 miles at
Harvey and other locations mostly 6+ miles. High res models
continue to show a gradual improvement in conditions through
tomorrow, though low ceilings will continue to predominate across
most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main story for this evening and overnight will once again be
the fog and drizzle. A stagnant pattern continues with very little
wind and mixing. Slick roads and limited visibility will be
possible once again across portions of central North Dakota
tonight.

Winds are expected to increase Sunday, which should finally kick
out the fog and lift some of the lowest cloud ceilings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The next chance for snow will be Monday night and Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The global models continue to track the upper low
south of the state placing the best chances for accumulating snow
across far southern North Dakota with an average of about 1 to 2
inches.

The remainder of the week looks marginally cooler with some
chances for light snow as a ridge builds across the eastern
Pacific and an h500 trough consolidates across the eastern CONUS
and Canada. Weak cyclonic flow aloft will support at least some
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Low ceilings will continue to lead to IFR conditions and possibly
LIFR at times, especially at KISN, KMOT and KJMS through Sunday.
Low clouds have not been moving as quickly to the south as
originally thought, so the KDIK TAF was updated to delay arrival
of low clouds until 11Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JNS


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