Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Early morning radar mosaic has a corridor of showers and a few
thunderstorms from northeast Montana, through northwest North
Dakota, to near Bismarck. Short term models suggest the rain will
generally continue in this area over the next several hours, as
it slowly spreads southeast. The main adjustment to the forecast
was to increase pops and spread them a bit more south and east
faster, in line with trends and short term models.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Early morning elevated convection northwest, portions of north
central, and south central is the highlight in the near term period.

Showers/thunderstorms across the northwest and portions of north and
south central will fade through late morning. Per latest water
vapor, a 700mb- 500mb shortwave trough in southwest Montana will
reach eastern Montana late this afternoon, then meander into
western ND tonight and Friday. A regeneration of showers/thunderstorms
in eastern Montana/western ND later this afternoon per latest
CAM`s and operational models seems reasonable. Another low level
850mb jet develops tonight in the vicinity of the the approaching
shortwave trough, so thinking is the showers and thunderstorms
from later this afternoon will continue through the night. It
appears the more robust Cape/Shear remains in eastern Montana
throughout the short term period, and the SREF 3hour Calibrated
Severe follows that trend as well as SPC, which keeps western and
portions of central ND in a General Thunderstorm Category.
Nonetheless, any shift eastward with the instability axis would
lead to stronger storms than what is currently anticipated.

High temperatures today will be in the 80s, with lower 90s far

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The leading shortwave trough from the short term continues
to migrate through Friday, with additional shortwaves streaming
into western/central ND all the way through Saturday evening.
Hence, chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue during this
time period. A brief break Sunday into early Monday as heights
rise and shortwaves are shunted north into southern Canada. The
ridge then breaks down a bit Monday afternoon through Wednesday
with chances as chances for showers/thunderstorms return.
Afternoon highs vary little day to day through the long term
period. Expect highs in the 80s for all but the the far west where
lower 90s will occur. Overnight lows also look stagnant with
lower to mid 60s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the early part of the Taf period, a tempo group for -tsra has
been added to KISN from 12z-16z Thursday, with a tempo -shra at KBIS
from 12z-16z Thursday. KJMS will have vsbys in the ifr range due to
fog until 13z. Another round of showers/thunderstorms will develop
across western North Dakota late Thursday afternoon and continue
through the remainder of the Taf period, possibly getting as far
east as KMOT/KBIS late Thursday night.




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