Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 051133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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