Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 091241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 640 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills are in place across
western and central North Dakota this morning. This supports the
current wind chill advisory, and have left it in place through
the morning.

A few observation sites in the southwest have reported reduced
visibility in fog. The fog can also be seen on some area webcams,
so added that into the forecast for a few hours this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Surface analysis early this morning places high pressure across
the state. This has brought light winds to western and central
North Dakota along with frigid temperatures. The tricky part has
been clouds which continue to move in and out of areas this
morning. Any clearing allows temperatures to fall quickly, while
spots under the clouds are not quite as cold. This has impacted
wind chills, with some locations easily hitting criteria, while
some spots have not. Due to the transient nature of the clouds,
temperatures could easily fall more this morning, so plan to keep
the entire advisory in place.

Temperatures will struggle to recover today with many areas
remaining below zero for highs. It will be cold again tonight, and
clouds will likely again play a role in how quickly temperatures
drop. Wind chills could again approach advisory levels, but will
take the headlines one at a time and defer to later shifts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The wave will bring increasing chances for snow Saturday which
linger into Sunday. After collaboration with surrounding offices,
opted to boost the model blended pops a little to show an area of
likely pops moving across the state from west to east. This
appears to be a high pop, but lower qpf type event. Have generally
gone with snowfall totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Frigid temperatures look to be the main story next week with small
snow chances from time to time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

KDIK begins this taf period with vlifr cigs/vsbys while mvfr cigs
will reside along and west of the Missouri River with KISN/KBIS
terminals in this potential until 18z-20z Friday. KDIK should see
improvements to mvfr by 15z Friday. Elsewhere at KMOT/KJMS expect vfr
cigs with a few/sct low clouds during the morning hours. Clouds
increase again across the western terminals Friday night but should
remain vfr through 12z Saturday.


Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for



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