Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200914
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
414 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The main focus for the short term is hot temperatures and
thunderstorms.

Compressional warming with a nearby front and a large dome of very
hot air aloft will mix down and lead to another sultry day. Widespread
temperatures around 100 will be common across the southern half
of North Dakota. Heat indices around 105 are expected across
portions of central North Dakota and the James Valley.

A very moist and unstable airmass is in place. A weak front will
slide across North Dakota today and interact with this unstable
airmass. This could provide enough lift to overcome any capping in
place. If this does occur rapid thunderstorm development and
intensification is possible. Short-term models are all over the
place with respect to time and location of any storm development.
At this time it appears the most likely opportunity for storms
is late this afternoon across central and northern North Dakota.
With ample instability and a decent shear profile with southerly
winds at the surface and westerly aloft, rotating updrafts and
supercells are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A cooler day is expected Thursday behind the front. Temperatures
are still expected to climb into the 90s, but humidity should be
noticeably less.

Thunderstorms are possible once again Friday as another wave moves
out of the mountain west. If thunderstorms develop they could
become severe with very high instability, steep lapse rates and
modest shear in place.

Cold air advection will take hold this weekend. Temperatures will
fall back into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

IFR conditions are likely in parts of the James River valley late
tonight and Wednesday morning as stratus and/or fog forms due to
the moisture-laden air mass. KJMS will likely be impacted. Local
LIFR conditions are possible. Otherwise, VFR weather will prevail
across western and central ND tonight and Wednesday. A chance of
storms exists in the north tonight, and west and central Wednesday.
However, a capping inversion aloft may inhibit development, so we
didn`t even include a VCTS in any of the 06 UTC TAFs.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ this evening for NDZ010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS


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