Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 172041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
241 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Widespread, accumulating snow likely late tonight through tomorrow

A progressive, but potent upper level wave will swing through late
tonight/tomorrow. Frontogenetical forcing in the lower levels
will overlap lift in the upper levels. A saturated dendritic
growth zone, coupled with the strong lift suggest a fairly potent
band of snow will setup somewhere between Interstate 94 and the
International Border, with the Highway 2 cooridor being most
likely at this time to see the higher snowfall amounts. There is
still uncertainty with regards to placement of this band even this
close to the event. The ECMWF is much further north than the GFS.
Ensemebles place a general area of accumulation between I-94 and
the Canadian Border.

With widespread two to four inches and isoalted higher amounts
likely, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued from I-94 north to
the International Border.

As the wave departs, breezy winds will cause the potential for
some patchy blowing snow Sunday afternoon, mainly across the
James River Valley, where reduced visibility will be possible in
open country.

The latest model runs indicate less of a threat for freezing
drizzle across the south and therefore elected to remove it from
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

On Monday, another shortwave will swing through the Northern
Plains, bringing the potential for some more light snow across
southern North Dakota. Behind this wave, another shot of arctic
air will bring the potential for dangerous wind chills across
western and central North Dakota through the middle of the week. A
slight warmup is possible by the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Snow is expected to spread across the state tonight into Sunday
morning. All terminals should experience reduced visibilities and
ceilings in snow and possibly blowing snow. Will carry the
greatest reductions in visibility / ceilings generally after 06Z
with some improvement late in the period, primarily towards KJMS
and KBIS. Light freezing drizzle is possible, especially in
southern North Dakota. The snow is still expected to diminish
Sunday afternoon.




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