Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010628

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1228 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016


Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Seeing and getting reports of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle
a bit more south than previously advertised, so expanded the areal
coverage farther south to include northwest, central and eastern
areas of the forecast area. Cloud cover also keeping temperatures
up in the southwest, so trended warmer but still think lows in the
teens there are possible.

UPDATE Issued at 923 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Large stratus deck wrapping counterclockwise around the large
exiting low pressure system currently centered over the Great Lakes.
The western edge of the clouds remains in eastern Montana...helping
keep temperatures fairly steady across the region. Current forecast
on track and updated the hourly conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Winds continue to decrease...and stratus cloud deck remains across
the region. Temperatures were remaining steady or falling
slightly...consistent with the current forecast. Light snow flurries
remain across western and central ND. Minot observation had reported
"unknown precipitation" for a short time this past hour, but now
reports "light snow." So...this may have been a bit of patchy
freezing drizzle that was of concern in the (previous) afternoon
forecast discussion. Current forecast on track and no changes needed
this update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Concerns for the short term period include ending the residual
snow followed by some patchy freezing drizzle.

Radar trends confirm areas of light snow continue across western
and central North Dakota this afternoon. CAM models as well as the
NAM/GFS hold on to light precipitation within the remnants of
the trowel across the area tonight. Bufkit soundings show
decreasing chances for seeder/feeder ice crystals across northern
and eastern sections of North Dakota. Will keep some freezing
drizzle north and east as a result.

On Thursday expect a slight chance of light snow across the west
in a weak baroclinic zone where weak warm advection is seen.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The highlights in the long term include an arctic intrusion early
next week bringing the coldest air of the season with some
accumulating snow.

As the persistent upper low continues its slow migration out of
the northern plains Thursday night a weak split flow becomes
established aloft. Models portray an upper low meandering through
this area that could support clouds and some slight chances for
snow thursday night. While friday looks quiet things begin to
change Saturday with a stronger shortwave moving onto the Pacific
northwest. This system become positively tilted and digs much
further south into the four corners area by Tuesday. This flow
will provide several opportunities for light snow chances in the
Monday-Tuesday period. Some accumulating snow looks reasonable
with the GEFS plumes still not providing enough certainty on
amounts. But following this cold arctic air will make its first
appearance of the season. This will feature below zero minimum
temperatures with highs possibly barely above zero Tuesday night
through Thursday. Wind chills during this period will likely fall
below 15 below zero for many locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 1228 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Hazards to aviation in western and central ND tonight include
widespread MVFR and IFR ceilings. Patchy freezing drizzle will be
possible at KMOT-KISN-KJMS-KBIS through 12-15Z Thursday morning.
For now just mentioned at KMOT, not as confident elsewhere regarding
freezing drizzle added to the TAF but will monitor closely.




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