Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cooler Wednesday highlights the short term forecast.

Western and central North Dakota will remain in the dry slot of
the low across southeast Saskatchewan through the evening and
much of the overnight. Wrap around moisture will increase through
the late night and Wednesday morning, generally in the form of
low stratus with precipitation chances generally restricted to
along and north of US Highway 2. Continued low level cold air
advection and cloud cover will limit highs to around 60 far
northwest to the mid 70s across the James River Valley. Given good
agreement, a consensus of the 12-15 UTC global and hi resolution
suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances Friday into Saturday and moderating
temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global and ensemble suites suggest a shortwave trough to
impact the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. While some timing
differences do remain, the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southern North Dakota. Low
amplitude, broad upper level ridging is forecast Sunday into early
next week, supporting a moderating trend back to near normal


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cold front that was in central North Dakota early this afternoon
will continue to move east. Northwest wind gusts of 25-30 kts are
expected behind the front through sunset. MVFR stratus may build
across the area tonight as low level moisture wraps around a low
in southern Canada.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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