Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KBIS 241936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
236 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

In the short term an h500 shortwave ridge over the north central
will flatten as a shortwave moves from teh northwest CONUS through
the northern plains on Tuesday. There appears to be sufficient
moisture available to support a likely chance for rain across the
James river valley on Tuesday. Also the Ensemble Situational Table
has places the GEFS mean QPF above 90th percentile across the James
river valley. This is consistent with the last several forecast

We did add a period of drizzle and fog across southwest North
Dakota after coordinating with Rapid City. This will be around
sunrise through noon Tuesday in moist low level upslope flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The main feature in the extended period will be the exiting
shortwave Tuesday night. The rain will end by Wednesday morning
after which the H500 ridge returns across the northern plains
bringing dry weather Wednesday into Thursday. Another ridge
running h500 shortwave trough will bring a cold front through the
region Friday and Saturday for a cooldown from the 60s on
Thursday to the 40s by Saturday. This will also bring gusty
northwest winds at least 20 to 30 mph Friday afternoon. Current
guidance keeps the majority of precipitation north in Canada with
this system. Return flow around surface high pressure will bring
slightly moderating temperatures back into the 50s Sunday to 40s
and 50s Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Ifr cigs at KDIK will improve to vfr by 19z. Expecting a period of
mvfr cigs at KBIS between 18z and 20z Monday, as lower clouds
between KDIK and KBIS shift east. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs until
14z Tuesday. Thereafter, mvfr cigs take control through 18z Tuesday
at least, with IFR cigs forecast at KDIK. A vcsh was also added for
KBIS and KJMS during this timeframe.




AVIATION...KS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.