Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA







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