Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
359 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

After a stormy night, a quiet and mainly clear day is expected.
North Dakota will be under the influence of an upper level low
parked across southern Alberta. This will allow several upper
level short waves to propagate across North Dakota. Some of the
short-term high-res models are indicating scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing in conjunction with one such wave across
southwestern North Dakota late this afternoon and evening. In the
wake of Sunday`s cold front instability will be limited with a dry
westerly wind limiting boundary layer moisture. Therefore...only
showers and a few weak thunderstorms appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The upper level low will remaining nearly stationary across
southern Alberta through the mid week. This will bring active
cyclonic flow to the area, though models are having quite a bit of
trouble with timing out individual short waves within the system.
With that said, there are chances for precipitation every day
given this active pattern. Eventually this low will eject
eastward. As it does so surface return flow will strengthen along
with moisture advection. Increased boundary layer moisture and
instability could lead to some stronger thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thunderstorms with local MVFR or IFR conditions will continue over
the southern James River Valley until around 10 UTC. Otherwise, a
few showers may linger across central ND overnight, but we expect
VFR conditions to prevail over all but the southern James River
Valley the rest of the night. VFR conditions are expected across
all of western and central ND on Monday.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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