Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH THE NEXT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. GOING FORECASTS HANDLES THIS WELL SO CHANGES FOR UPDATE
ARE MINIMAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COUPLE SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH
ONE UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PUSHING EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS





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