Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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507
FXUS63 KBIS 270003
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
603 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Slight adjustments were made to POPs to reflect the latest radar
trends and current observations were blended into the forecast. No
major changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Highlighting the short term period is light snow with accumulations
of between one and two inches Monday for portions of western/central
North Dakota.

Current surface map shows a meandering baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary draped over southern Montana into southwest/far south
central ND and then dropping back into northern SD. Weak low
pressure riding along the boundary in southwest ND is producing
areas of light snow southwest with flurries downstream into south
central ND. The surface low will shift into northern SD this
evening with flurries abating and ending.

Attention then turns to the transition from northwest upper flow
to westerly tonight, and southwest Monday, as the next shortwave
trough edges closer. The aforementioned baroclinic zone tightens
up across western and central ND later tonight ahead of a lead
shortwave shifting into southeastern Montana. Some alignment with
low level frontogenesis forcing and synoptic scale ascent nudging
into western ND by 12z Monday, then spreading into portions of
central ND during the day. With all models agreeing on this setup
and generating qpf, have raised pops to categorical with snow mentioned
resulting in between 1 and 2 inches north of I-94, and within the
Highway 83 and 85 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The main shortwave trough will slide into Monday night and Tuesday
morning mainly affecting southern ND with perhaps up to one inch
near/along the southern border. As this shortwave exits, a return
to northwesterly flow returns through Thursday with a couple of
weak clipper type systems advertised to sweep through. Minor
accumulations of up to one inch is certainly possible with these
clippers, and adjustments can be made as they get closer in time.
The upper flow becomes zonal Friday through Sunday resulting in a
moderating trend. However the pattern remains progressive and
fairly active during this time as well. Highs will mainly be in
the 20s through Thursday, then moderate into the 30s and 40s
Friday through Sunday. With the moderating temperatures, expect a
mix of rain and snow as the main precipitation types into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

MVFR and IFR ceilings will dominate much of the 00Z TAF period.
Additionally, chances for snow will begin to taper off tonight but
another round of snow is forecast to start moving into the west by
11Z. KISN and KMOT are the sites most likely to receive light snow.
Lower ceilings, possibly LIFR, and reduced visibilities will
accompany the snow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Occasional ice jams due to ice breaking up continue along the
Yellowstone River in eastern Montana. River rises will be
possible on the Yellowstone in North Dakota from Fairview,
downstream to the Missouri River near Buford when ice jams
release. Ice affected rises may also be possible along the
Missouri River from the Yellowstone downstream to Trenton and
Williston. Those with interests along the Yellowstone and Missouri
Rivers near the Montana border should be prepared for the
possibility of rising river levels.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC
HYDROLOGY...JJS



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