Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 251511
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH NO IMPACTS (REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND/OR SMOKY SMELL/RESPIRATORY HAZARDS) OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS CHANGES.

OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE STILL DEPICTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
SO KEPT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WILL NEED TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT KJMS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.