Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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400
FXUS63 KBIS 131806
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1206 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1206 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Will allow the wind chill warning to expire as scheduled at noon
CST with conditions rapidly improving. Maintained blowing/drifting
snow in the forecast for some areas north central and the James
River Valley where winds remain strong enough to cause some travel
issues. Sky cover was significantly reduced with satellite and
obs indicating clear conditions. All other forecast elements on
track for today and tonight.


UPDATE Issued at 807 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Allowed the Wind Chill Advisory to expire on time as wind chill
values will continue to slowly warm across far western and
southern North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

No changes were needed with the latest update. Just blended the
latest observations to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Dangerous wind chills through this morning highlight the short
term forecast.

Arctic high pressure was centered over Minnesota. The lowest
temperatures in ND were over central and eastern ND where
temperatures were in the teens and 20s below zero...and where wind
chills were in the 40 to 50 below zero range. Over southwestern ND
warm advection was taking place with southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph
were allowing the low/surface level to mix with the warming aloft.
This has resulted in steady or rising temperatures in the single
digits below zero. Wind chills mainly south and west of the Missouri
and near the SD border were in the 25 to 40 below zero range. Thus
the current wind chill warning (mainly north and east of the
Missouri) and wind chill advisory (mainly south and west of the
Missouri and along the SD border) remains valid. No changes to these
wind chill headlines...meaning the advisory is in effect until
around 8 am CST and the warning in effect until noon CST.

The arctic high is forecast to move east over the Great Lakes with
south to southwest winds developing/expanding eastward across ND
today. Southwesterly winds may reach 15 to 25 mph - especially over
the Coteau and areas of central ND. Patchy blowing snow is possible
with the continued light and fluffy nature of the snowpack. Some
areas along the Coteau that sometimes experience higher wind gusts
could see a bit more widespread areas of blowing snow this
afternoon. Temperatures should reach 5 to 10 above zero across the
northern counties and in the James River Valley...with highs in the
teens to around 20 above zero south and west of the Missouri River.

Lows tonight should be mainly in the single digits below zero. No
wind chill headlines should be needed tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Moderating temperatures this weekend into next week highlight the
extended forecast.

The global models are in agreement regarding an upper level cutoff
low off the southern California coast and relatively zonal flow of
the westerlies across western and central Canada. ND should be
between these two features. This will favor a warming trend
continuing through next week. We should see highs in the teens and
20s Saturday...warming to the 30s by mid-week. The forecast looks
dry during this period...with a hint of precipitation at the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

Issued at 1206 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH



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