Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Issued at 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Latest obs were blended and slight chance POPs were added to
reflect radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Have trimmed precipitation chances back a little bit with only
chances remaining over the far southern portions of the area. With
cold air continuing to move in aloft, the chances for any freezing
rain/sleet should be gone in the next hour or two. Updates have
been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dipping down into the central plains. Upper level
analysis places compact low over central Manitoba, with west to
southwest flow over much of the western United States. Some light
spotty precipitation continues to show up on radar over southern
portions of the area, as broader area of freezing precipitation
has pushed off to the northeast.

For today, some light precipitation may continue over southern
portions of the area, but the threat for freezing rain and sleet
will diminish through the morning as cooler air aloft works in.
Temperatures will remain quite chilly to the northeast, warmer to
the southwest. Mainly quiet weather is expected tonight with cold
temperatures as high pressure settles in.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A cooler day is expected on Saturday as high pressure continues to
settle through the area.

A roller coaster of temperatures is expected for the upcoming
week. Ridging over the area to start the week will bring warming
temperatures, with a dry clipper zipping through the region late
Monday into Tuesday bringing temperatures back down. Temperatures
then again climb for mid week into the Thanksgiving Holiday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

At 545 AM CST...regional radar returns were suggesting light
precipitation continuing mainly along and south of I-94, and also
northeastward into much of eastern ND. However, only isolated areas
have reported any precipitation reaching the ground, and suspect any
light returns may be from virga or simply the mid-level cloud deck.
The only area of caution is that the Harvey AP reported unknown
precip. There may be some locales over south central and
southeastern ND with some light precip reaching the ground - it
would be in the form of light rain or light freezing rain.
TAF sites across southern ND and north of Jamestown will have mid
level clouds this morning, with clearing skies from northwest to
southeast today. VFR cigs return later tonight.




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