Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230643

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017


Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

We have added an area of likely to categorical (60-100 percent)
PoPs from Watford City and New Town eastward into north central
ND through about 09 UTC with this update. Light snow is reducing
visibility into the 2-4SM range from east central MT into west
central ND as of 0630 UTC. The weak mid-level shortwave trough
helping drive that precipitation will weaken as it shifts east of
the Highway 83 corridor and into more confluent flow aloft by late
tonight. The rest of the forecast was on track and merely blended
to trends in observations and rapid-refresh model guidance.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Main adjustments were to sky and temperatures based on observed
trends through 03 UTC. Skies have cleared at least temporarily
across the James River Valley, and thus lowered overnight lows
into the upper teens.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Little change with this update other than to blend to observed
trends through 00 UTC. Given the abundance of low level moisture
from fresh, wet snow, continue to expect the development of fog
for much of the area overnight into Thursday morning.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Latest radar analysis shows light snow tapering quickly across
western and central ND. There may be a mix over the far southern
James River Valley, but for the most part expect all snow late
this afternoon and evening. Strongest returns have moved into
eastern ND and we expect little or no additional accumulation. We
did keep a slight chance of precipitation though this evening.

With the rain and snow today, and generally light winds expected
tonight as high pressure moves across the area, have added a
mention of fog. Mostly cloudy skies will be a limiting factor but
there are some breaks showing up in the north. Numerical guidance
and mesoscale models are also hinting at possible fog tonight.

A storm system moves from the central Rockies into the central
plains on Thursday. We remain north of the system in western and
central ND. A northern stream shortwave could bring a few snow
showers to mainly northwest portions of the forecast area, with
little or no accumulation. After a low in the upper teens to mid
20s tonight, highs will climb into the mid 20s to mid 30s on

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The central plains storm system continues to track almost due east
Thursday night and Friday and we have manually removed any mention
of precipitation over the far southeast portion of the CWA for
that period. We remain cool and quiet during this timeframe across
the CWA. Friday night through Saturday night a clipper system
brings a reinforcing shot of cold air, possibly preceded by a shot
of light snow associated with the clipper.

We remain in an active northwest flow pattern on Sunday into the
middle of next week. Although no strong systems are expected
through early next week, a clipper bringing a shot of light snow
can be expected every 24 to 36 hours. At the end of the extended
period most deterministic models are trending farther south with
another storm system. Currently we are carrying some higher chance
pops. Expect this to continue to diminish with the next couple
model runs if models continue this trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 1243 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

MFVR/IFR ceilings will continue across southwestern North Dakota
with re-development across the north. Given the abundance of low
level moisture from fresh, wet snow, continue to expect the
development of fog and/or stratus for much of the area overnight
into Thursday morning. Also, an area of -SHSN will push east
across western and central ND through 12Z. Expect at least MVFR
ceilings to continue through the day on Thursday.





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