Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 030924
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
424 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEY WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST.
THESE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED SHORT TERM FORECAST
GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF BISMARCK...
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...WAS DECREASING AS IT MOVED EAST. BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF THIS RAIN AREA...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA...AS DEPICTED ON THE MOST RECENT JAMESTOWN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. TO THE WEST...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE GLASGOW MONTANA AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS TAKE THESE
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THEM AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST.

THERE WAS A CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND WITH THAT COMES DRIER
AIR TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
60S. DEPENDING ON THE EROSION OF LOWER CLOUDS...AND SUBSEQUENT
SUNSHINE...THE SOUTHWEST COULD TOUCH 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
LOWER CHANCES SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT IT WOULD BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT STORMS MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERTINENT FEATURE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH FORMS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SOMEWHAT FRACTURED REX BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THIS TROUGH SETS UP IT SENDS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY NORTHWARD IN A SOUTHWEST H500 FLOW REGIME INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE BECOMES ABUNDANT WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEARLY 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE REX BLOCK SHEARS OFF AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE GFS SHOWS GOOD CAPE OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOO SOON TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN BUT CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. BY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND REMAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 16Z WHEN ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN ON
LOWERING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ERODING THAT DECK.
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT THAT
SAME TIME. AFTER THAT...VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM



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