Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 041945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH THIS FEATURE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE DAY TWO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...THIS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
SUMMER AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT PROPAGATING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD MARK THE
END OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A MEAN...LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THESE COOLER
TEMPERATES...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FROST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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