Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF ERODING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT/COLD
FRONT IN THE NEXT 24HR. THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HRRR CEILING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE UTILIZED THIS FOR THE SKY GRIDS. ESSENTIALLY
EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCH
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON/WATFORD
CITY/DICKINSON/ELGIN...TO BEGIN ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
15Z...THEN WORKING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z.
INCREASING 3HR PRESSURE FALLS DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING
MOTION NOW ENTERING THE WEST WILL HELP FACILITATE THE EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT THE CLEARING LINE EAST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS OCCURS EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL BEHIND
THIS FRONT. H85 TEMPS RISE TO +9/10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REACH ONLY TO AROUND 890MB..SO WILL NOT SEE
THE FULL MIXING/WARMTH POTENTIAL AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE
THIS LEVEL REMAINS STRONG. BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TO
LOWER 60S WEST. LOWS OF AROUND 40F CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR
EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS WITH
KISN AND KDIK REMAINING ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY HELPING TO LIFT CIGS
BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-16Z AT KISN/KDIK...BETWEEN
17Z-18Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







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