Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231016
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
516 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

This Friday morning the mid level low, that began impacting our
weather with an increase in clouds yesterday, was over Utah and
progged to move northeast. This is consistent model to model. By
Saturday afternoon it is either over eastern Montana or western
North Dakota, depending on which model is followed, and ends up in
Manitoba by Sunday. The 150 mile difference in track of that mid
level low results in very little difference in sensible weather as
the surface low track is much more in line model to model.

Basically what this track and diffluent flow aloft means is a lot
of clouds and numerous showers. It also means warmer weather
ahead of the surface feature as winds veer to southerly, and an
increase in instability. We`d also expect a dry slot to work in,
likely through the central Dakotas, resulting in some sunshine on
Saturday.

The surface low track and tightening gradient would support windy
weather Saturday and Sunday, very windy southwest with an advisory
possibly needed.

As far as lightning, the better chances are along and south of
I-94 as CAPE and instability are highest, but still not
impressive, later today. storms could fire in the dry slot
Saturday, and conditions would favor strong storms, but they would
likely form in the central Dakotas, strengthening as they move
east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Gusty wind in the wake of the low continues for Sunday, again,
possibly advisory levels. Behind the mid level low on monday we`d
typically expect cooler air, however, models agree on strong H5
ridging, in response to the deepening low, into the forecast
area. This means back to normal, and even above normal
temperatures, to end September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

MVFR ceilings across southwestern ND will expand north and east
and trend to IFR through 18Z Friday. Rain showers will be
scattered across the forecast area as low pressure approaches from
the southwest. Even when rain is not falling over the higher
terrain of southwest North Dakota visibilities will be reduced in
fog. A slow change from IFR back to MVFR ceilings is forecast
after 06Z Saturday. Generally 10 to 20 knot easterly winds should
be expected through the TAF valid period, then, windier.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM



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