Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180904
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
404 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be continued
cool and dry weather.

Currently, temperatures falling well into the lower to middle 30s
across much of western and central North Dakota as colder air
settles in across the region.

Surface high pressure continues to slowly build south-southeast
towards the Northern Plains today. Cold mid level temperatures
associated with the high pressure will moderate today though not
expecting much temperature recovery at the surface with highs once
again mainly in the 50s. Winds will remains from the
north/northeast but not as strong as we saw Wednesday.

High pressure remains quasi-stationary centered over southern
Manitoba tonight. Another clear sky, dry air, and relatively light
winds will create conditions favorable for lows in the lower to
mid 30s once again. Will not issue frost headlines with this
forecast issuance with current headlines in effect. The day shift
will likely handle this again.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF continue to bring an area of low
pressure north into North Dakota Friday/Saturday. Favorable areas
to receive moisture remain central and eastern portions of the
state, so not much change from previous forecasts over the last 24
hours.

Afterwards northwest flow aloft develops on Sunday and remains in
place for the remainder of the long term period and beyond
(possibly into the following weekend) with upper ridging remaining
stationary over the West Coast. Global models continue to bring
several potent embedded waves within the flow south-southeast
across the Northern Plains late this weekend and into next week.
First wave moves through Sunday night/Monday, weaker feature on
Tuesday, then another potent S/WV mid-week. Each will bring a
chance for showers and/thunderstorms with models portraying some
instability with each.

Cool temperatures are still advertised to accompany the surface
high and upper low through Saturday, with forecast highs in the
50s to low 60s, along with the threat for frost remaining through
Saturday AM. A moderation in temperatures is forecast for Sunday,
followed by cooler conditions for much of next week under the
north/northwest flow regime.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Gusty north winds at KJMS will slowly subside through Thursday
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF
period with a light north to northeast surface flow.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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